I do believe that the race has tightened. A lot. But not that much.
Those of us who opposed Paul in the primary knew that his nomination would make this a needlessly close election. Republicans nominated a candidate with more baggage than an Samsonite store.
The Conway commercial with the sheriffs -- in which Paul says he opposes the criminalization of non-violent crimes -- makes me cringe every time it airs, no matter how saturated the Conway campaign's buy. It was bound to move the polls. Perhaps the worst aspect of that ad is Paul's demeanor; his hair is disheveled and he is unusually inarticulate.
So the question must be asked: why didn't Trey Grayson use that video? If he didn't have it then he should have had something similar, given all the interviews Paul sat for during his father's two failed presidential runs.
Still, Paul is solidly conservative on fiscal issues in year when voters are fixated on the size of government and the national debt. It might not be pretty, but he will win.