New Rasmusson Poll (U.S. Senate)

A new Rasmusson poll (via Joe Arnold) shows that Republicans continue to solidify their hold on the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated (not a day too soon) by Sen. Jim Bunning.

This poll confirms what the SUSA poll previously found: either Trey Grayson or Rand Paul would beat the Democratic nominee, whether it is Jack Conway or Dan Mongiardo.

If the Democrats nominate Mongiardo, at this point Grayson wins 46-33 (last month Grayson led 49-35), whereas Paul would win 51-34 (last month, Paul led 48-37).

If, or I should say, when Conway wins the Democratic nomination, both Paul and Grayson beat Conway with 49 percent. If Paul is the nominee, the GOP holds the seat 49-34. If Grayson is the seat, he wins 49-34. Last month, Grayson led Conway by a narrower margin (44-40). Paul led Conway last month 47-39.

Note that both Democratic candidates are "upside-down" in that their unfavorable ratings exceed their favorables. Mongiardo's very favorables to very unfavorable is 17-20. For Conway, the numbers are a little better: 12-13.

For Republicans, Paul is viewed very favorable to very unfavorably 18-9. Grayson is viewed very favorably to unfavorably 11-5.

The poll was conducted among 500 likely voters on March 3, 2010. As Joe Arnold notes, that was at the height of Jim Bunning's grand stand and therefore the best opportunity for Democrats to score. Not even Bunning could help Conway or Mongiardo.

New Senate Poll Shows McConnell Up

The Rasmussen poll continues to lurch along, this time towards Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. The poll shows McConnell up by seven points (48-41) over perennial candidate Bruce Lunsford.

Last month, Rasmussen asserted that McConnell was down by five points. It's hard to believe a poll that swings twelve points for no apparent reason.

McConnell's favorable rating, according to the poll, is 56 percent (40 percent unfavorable). Lunsford is viewed favorably by only 43 percent (46 percent negative).

Aside from its weird volatility, the Rasmussen poll is good reading for political junkies who like irony and understatement:

Lunsford founded a health care company in 1985 that has been a topic of conversation in earlier campaigns and will likely be scrutinized again between now and November.

"Topic of conversation"? When Ben Chandler essentially called Lunsford Dr. Kevorkian, and accused him of dumping comatose medicare patients, that was a "topic of conversation"?

Rasmussen also runs something called Rasmussen markets, where participants can buy and trade politicians like a fantasy baseball team. According to Rasmussen markets, McConnell has a 60 percent chance of keeping his job.

Lunsford is celebrating the new poll results by offering to match, dollar for dollar, all contributions to his campaign before June 30.