Rasmusson: Rand Paul Still Leads

The latest Rasumusson poll shows Rand Paul still leading over Jack Conway, 49- 38. Rasmusson, which tends to lean right, therefore places Kentucky in the "solid Republican" column. Rasmusson does show that the race has tightened from three weeks ago (54-39).

I tend to think the race is somewhere in between the latest SUSA poll -- showing a dead heat -- and Rasmusson's 11 point lead for Paul. I know of no Republicans or independents who have switched from Paul to Conway, just plenty who are wishing they could have a do-over for the primary.

H/t: Daily Caller

Hide Your Daughters, Bubba's Coming Back

Jack Conway is hoping to bring Bill Clinton to rouse to the base the last week of the campaign, according to Joe Arnold.

This is all part of Conway's strategy to bury his head in the sand and pretend he has never heard the names Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid -- so he can then go to D.C. and vote for whatever they offer up.

Shortly after he won the nomination, when asked whether he would invite Obama to campaign for him, Conway -- with a straight face -- said he was pretty sure the president had more important things to do (than what, save the Senate?)

Sadly, Obama's reprise of the Carter administration makes even Republicans nostalgic for Bubba.

The Nation Profiles Rand Paul

Kentucky native Dan Bischoff has a good piece on the Kentucky Senate race in The Nation. I particularly liked the conclusion:

It's not as if Kentuckians don't know what Washington can do—you can see the Kentucky Lakes from outer space, for God's sake. The first question for any Democrat has to be, Why has the government done so little about unemployment and restoring consumer confidence? Maybe Jack Conway can answer that better in the next two months than my brief experience of him on the stump showed. Or, as Conway evidently hopes, maybe Rand will order a Jack Daniel's and call it bourbon, or set fire to the Daniel Boone National Forest.

If not, it's like the Republican primary never ended, in a way. There are still two Republicans fighting it out: one young, native-born, rich and (this time) a handsome lawyer, and one a quirky outsider pushing economic fundamentalism. We know how that race turned out the first time.

H/t: RealClearPolitics

Careful What You Wish For

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell may get to try his hand at herding cats, if all the maverick-y Tea Partiers get elected. (The Washington Examiner, via Instapundit, has the list.)

Rand Paul has been left behind, as these upstarts in Republican Senate primaries across the country try to outdo each other in professing their love for the constitution and their loathing for debt.

And that's fine, in theory. The looming question is whether any of these people will be able to transition from candidate to Senator -- will their ideological purity prevent them from getting anything done?

Remember when Rand Paul was all shiny and new and exotic? There are now enough Rand Paul clones to form a caucus. He is starting to look mainstream.

Polling Overview: U.S. Senate

Ryan Allesi has catalogued and compared all the recent polls for the U.S. Senate race. They are remarkably similar, except for the partisan PPP poll. The bottom line is that Rand Paul is winning and can win if he refrains from getting all wild-eyed and talking about obscure constitutional provisions and statutes:

U.S. Senate race of Rand Paul, the Republican, against Jack Conway, the Democrat:

• SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) Paul 51% to Conway 43% with 5% undecided
• cn|2 (7/22) Paul 41% to Conway 38% with 19% undecided
• Rasm. (7/20) Paul 49% to Conway 41% with 10% other/not sure
• PPP (6/30) Paul 43% to Conway 43% with 14% undecided
• Rasm.(6/28) Paul 49% to Conway 42% with 9% other/not sure.

New Poll on Senate Race

Joe Arnold is reporting that a new Public Policy Poll shows that Rand Paul and Jack Conway are tied in the U.S. Senate race, at 43 percent each.

It was inevitable that the onslaught of national media scrutiny would bring Paul's numbers back down from the stratosphere. This was Paul's own fault. Now he is demonstrating McConnell-like discipline in staying on message and avoiding left-wing shows that seek to sandbag him.

The poll notes that Paul's biggest asset is President Obama's miserable approval rating in Kentucky. That's not going to change, and certainly not before November.

Meanwhile, other than fundraising, Conway has done nothing but write mash notes to Dan Mongiardo. We won't even get to hear Conway cuss like a sailor due to the new speech rules at Fancy Farm. That's alright; we know he's Jack Tough.

Rainy Days and Election Days

Grayson's get out the vote effort has shown more passion than his ads. I say the rain helps Grayson more than Paul today

No matter the outcome, I am just grateful for an end to the robo-calls and mailers. And the TV ads, none of which was particularly good. Why can't Kentucky candidates do political ads like this guy in Alabama? Finally, a muscular conservatism.

Save Now

H/t: Hot Air

Rick Santorum Endorses Trey

Former Sen. Rick Santorum -- a rising conservative star -- endorsed Trey Grayson, based on Grayson's commitment to protecting the unborn.

Here's the release:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum announced today that he is endorsing Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Santorum is in Kentucky to speak at the 40^th anniversary dinner for Kentucky Right to Life.

"Trey Grayson is the only 100% pro-life candidate in this race. I’ve looked at the records and past statements of both candidates on the issue of protecting life, and I’m impressed with Grayson’s conviction and sincerity,” said Santorum.

He continued, “And on other issues, too, Trey Grayson has a solidly conservative record. As Secretary of State he has cut his budget by 15%. That’s the kind of fiscal conservatism we need in Washington. Trey has a record, not just rhetoric on fiscal responsibility.”

Grayson commented, “It means a lot to me that Senator Santorum would endorse my campaign. I’m thrilled to have his support. If I’m elected I will be a conservative voice for Kentucky whose views match our state and whose principles don’t change for the sake of political expediency.”

Santorum will appear on the Terry Meiners Show and The Pulse of Lexington with Leland Conway today to discuss Grayson’s candidacy and his endorsement.

Rand Paul has recently claimed to be pro-life, but in contrast to Trey Grayson, he has a long record of advocating pro-choice positions.

KY Senate Seat Leans to GOP

RealClearPolitics has linked a new Rasmusson poll that shows that it is increasingly likely that Sen. Jim Bunning's U.S. Senate seat will remain in Republican hands -- regardless of the nominee.

The most movement appears to have occurred in the Trey Grayson - Dan Mongiardo match-up. Grayson wins 53-33. That's a seven point improvement for Grayson over the March 2 poll. Rand Paul would likewise beat Mongiardo but by a slimmer margin (52-37). Paul improved his position one point since last month.

In the event that Jack Conway is the Democrats' nominee, Grayson wins 52-32 (up three from last month). Paul would beat Conway, but again, the margin is narrower: 50-36. And again, Paul only moved up one point.

The irony is that though Grayson has not sewn up his own primary, he is unquestionably the stronger candidate. He beats either Democratic nominee by twenty (20!) points.

Rand Paul has peaked. Notwithstanding the massive amount of advertising and earned media, he only increased his margin of victory by one point, compared to Grayson, who increased seven points against Mongiardo and three against Conway.

Ron Lewis Endorses Trey Grayson

Former Congressman Ron Lewis has endorsed Trey Grayson in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. The release speaks for itself:

Trey Grayson has shown the kind of character and leadership that Kentuckians deserve in their next United States Senator. It’s a pleasure for Kayi and I to offer our support to his campaign. In his six years as Kentucky’s Secretary of State Trey has improved the efficiency of his office, operating on a 15% smaller budget than his predecessor even while his responsibilities have increased. That’s the kind of fiscal discipline we need in Washington. I know Trey will fight for comprehensive budget and spending reform to restore our nation’s fiscal health that will help create more jobs,” said Lewis.

Secretary Grayson said, “In 1994, Ron Lewis sparked a revolution that sent shockwaves through Washington, much like we hope Scott Brown’s historic win did on Tuesday. I’m thrilled to have his and Kayi’s support. If elected to the U.S. Senate I will never waiver in my conservative principles and will not let them down. They served the Commonwealth well and are very respected in the 2^nd District and statewide. This is a major boost for our campaign,” said Grayson.

Congressman Lewis explained more about his support for Grayson saying, “I know Trey will stand for the conservative principles Kentuckians believe in. He is 100% pro-life and when it comes to national security, Trey is the candidate we want representing the 101^st Airborne, Fort Campbell, and Fort Knox. Trey understands the importance of not giving an inch to the enemy, working to prevent terrorists from being tried in the United States, and will work to keep the terrorist detention facility at Guantanamo open. He understands that we don’t want suspected terrorists housed at Fort Knox or other U.S. facilities.

The Terrorism Component to Brown's Victory Helps Grayson

Much has been said about Scott Brown's opposition to Obamacare, high taxes and deficit spending. But Brown's internal polling showed that terrorism and treatment of enemy combatants was the "most potent issue," according to NRO's Andy McCarthy.

That has direct implications for Kentucky's Republican primary to replace Sen. Jim Bunning. Trey Grayson has reiterated his opposition to closing Gitmo and to giving civilian trials to enemy combatants. Grayson likewise argues that the U.S. must stay on the offense in the war on terror.

Dr. Rand Paul, in contrast, avoids the whole subject of terrorism like it is the Swine Flu. And no wonder: many of his libertarian followers, according to their comments to this blog, blame the U.S. for 9/11. Ignoring the high rate of recidivism among enemy combatants, Paul has said that he would send Gitmo prisoners back to their country of origin because it would "take them a long time" to get back here to try to kill us again.

After the attempted bombing of the Detroit-bound plane on Christmas day, Grayson quickly issued a statement. Grayson pointed out that some of the attack's planners had been released from Gitmo, only to become al Qaeda leaders in Yemen; the attempted bomber's master-minds thus are the poster-terrorists of why Gitmo should not be closed. Paul issued no statement about the attempted attack.

This is the dilemma for Paul. He has many loyal and energized followers who hate the U.S. war on terror. But unless and until Paul speaks to the issue of national security, he cannot appeal to the third leg of the Reagan coalition: voters who value a strong national defense.

Those national security voters are one reason that Scott Brown was able to reassemble the Reagan coalition. As McCarthy writes,

Scott Brown went out and made the case for enhanced interrogation, for denying terrorists the rights of criminal defendants, for detaining them without trial, and for trying them by military commission. It worked.. . . .

Yes, the Left will say you are making a mockery of our commitment to “the rule of law.” MSNBC will run segments on your dark conspiracies to “shred the privacy rights of Americans.” The New York Times will wail that you’re heedless of the damage you’ll do to “America’s reputation in the international community.”

The answer is: So what? The people making these claims don’t speak for Americans — they speak at Americans, in ever shrinking amounts. If you’re going to cower from a fight with them, we don’t need you. Get us a Scott Brown who’ll take them on in their own backyard. And he’ll take them on with confidence because he knows their contentions are frivolous — and he knows that Americans know this, too.

So while both Grayson and Paul celebrate Brown's victory, and both echo Brown's opposition to Obamacare and deficit spending, only Grayson has thus far tapped into Brown's "more potent issue."

Trey Grayson Gets Ready to File

Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson will celebrate his filing for the U.S. Senate Republican primary with simultaneous house parties in 94 counties. Grayson will file next Thursday, January 14, 2009.

According to the Grayson campaign, the house parties will feature an "historic interactive, live video webcast moderated by a celebrity special guest host (to be announced later)." Go to TreyGrayson.com to get invited to a house party or to watch the webcast. Apparently, Grayson will take questions.

Any guess as to the "celebrity special guest host?" Please let it not be Glenn Beck. The Rand Paul campaign reached out to Sarah Palin, but has been unable to land her thus far; could it be Palin? Maybe it's Tim Pawlenty, since he seems to be everywhere these days. But then again, he's not much of a celebrity at this point. I'm betting that it's someone in the media.

The Grayson press release about the announcement lists a range of issues that like Rand Paul hits hard on the economy:

The problems we face as a country are getting worse each day: record unemployment, growing deficits, out-of-control spending, dependence on foreign energy, threats to our national security - and the list could go on. Instead of tackling these problems in common-sense ways that stress individual responsibility and fiscal restraint, the liberal majority in Washington believes spending more tax dollars and expanding government will solve our problems. Clearly that's not working.

Unlike Paul, however, Grayson recognizes -- and is willing to say -- that terrorism is one of the most important issues that we face as a country.

U of L CRs Invite Candidates to Debate

The University of Louisville College Republicans are attempting to put a debate together between the GOP U.S. Senate candidates.

The Rand Paul campaign has said he can attend any of the proffered dates: January 21, 27 or February 4, 15, or 25.

Trey Grayson will have to debate him at some point; might as well give the CRs a boost.

Grayson Kicks Off Senate Campaign

I could not attend Secretary of State Trey Grayson's campaign event yesterday, but Joe Arnold reports, quoting Grayson:

"We are in uncharted territory when it comes to our nation's fiscal health, and there is no end in sight," he said. "That's why we must enforce tough limits on our national debt, create a realistic plan for a balanced budget, reign in wasteful spending and end the unprecedented government takeover of the private sector."

"Our tax dollars are bailing out big banks and paying multimillion-dollar bonuses to people who ran their companies and our economy into the ground, and that's wrong," Grayson said, drawing applause from his northern Kentucky supporters. "The government has already taken over Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General Motors and Chrysler. Now this administration is intent on the government taking over health care and your doctor's office."

Grayson's appeal for limited government sounds pretty much the same as Dr. Rand Paul. Arnold notes, however, that Grayson is running as the GOP insider:

As Roll Call reported on Tuesday, twenty-three GOP Senators -- including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Bluegrass State's senior Senator -- are hosting a $500 per person fundraiser for Grayson at National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters Sept. 23.

The NRSC has not officially endorsed Grayson but the location of the event and the fact that NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) is one of the hosts of the fundraiser is a good indication of where the committee's loyalties lie in the race.

According to Arnold, Dr. Dan Mongiardo's campaign responded by making fun of Trey Grayson's given name and attempting to tie Grayson to former President George W. Bush:

"Charles Merwin Grayson, III has been anointed by the same Washington Republican leadership whose failed economic policies have plunged us into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Fortunately for Kentucky's working families struggling during these tough economic times, Daniel Mongiardo is the one candidate in this race who they can count on to stand up and fight for them."

As Arnold notes, Mongiardo's strategy of running against Bush might look pretty stale by November 2010; voters will be assessing the Obama administration by then.

Rand Paul's Campaign Responds

Dr. Rand Paul's campaign has responded to my inquiry regarding Paul's position on U.S. support of Israel and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Christopher Hightower writes:

Our site received thousands of emails on August 20th, please forgive me for not quickly responding to yours. Dr. Paul looks forward to articulating his positions as the campaign develops.

Question number 1:

What is Dr. Paul's view on American support for Israel?

Answer:

Israel is a friend of America, he supports all allies with the United States.

Question number 2:

How about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Dr. Paul supports and would have voted for war against those responsible for the attacks on 9-11. The Taliban would not cooperate with us and turn over those responsible. Actions were taken that Dr. Paul would have supported. Looking back Dr. Paul feels we should have taken smaller strike forces in much faster to deal with the terrorist camps. It took so long to amass our forces many had time to escape.

Dr. Paul supports all troops serving in our Armed Forces, however, he would not have voted for the war in Iraq.

Hightower states that the campaign is in the process of developing the issues section of its website and asserts that it is more informative than other candidates' websites.

He is correct with respect to Grayson, who does not have an issues section on his website. However, Grayson just kicked off his campaign yesterday. We will check back to see Grayson's position on foreign policy and if the website does not so state or is unclear, we will ask, as we did for Paul.

Dr. Dan Mongiardo, who has been running for U.S. Senate for quite a while, has an issues section on his website but it only includes a video of Mongiardo talking about how his family's poverty inspired him to bring health care to Eastern Kentucky. There are a few platitudes about coal and economic development, but no specifics, and nothing about foreign policy.

Likewise, the campaign website of Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway includes an issues section that at this point is limited to a video of Conway. His video has its own share of platitudes: now is the time for "a belief that a brighter tomorrow is just over the horizon." (Seriously, yick.) Conway's video at least attempts to list what he sees as the issues, though with little or no detail on how he would solve the problems he identifies. For example, Conway calls for a foreign policy that shows that "strength and wisdom are not opposing values." I'm not sure what that means; perhaps it translates into something along the lines of appeasement is not wimpy.

The Paul campaign therefore is correct that at this juncture its campaign website offers the most specificity on where its candidate stands on the issues. The Paul campaign's format of listing the issues and Paul's position works much better than a video of the candidate. It allowed me to focus on the positions without the distractions of Hair and Eyebrows.

The election is 14 months away. Lots of time to fine tune these websites so they do not insult the voters of Kentucky with cliches but rather give us an informed basis to choose our next U.S. Senator.