Generic Ballot Watch

This is perhaps the best predictor of the midterm elections: the Rasmusson Generic Ballot shows a 20 point swing to Republicans from 2008. The two party split in 2008 is Democrats 56, Republicans 44, thus the thumping. Now the two party split is Republicans 54, Democrats 46.

One thing to watch: the Generic Ballot is a little closer than it was last month, when the spread was 22. Still, if the midterm elections were held today, a 20 point swing in every district would result in 57 more Republicans.

Consider that John Yarmuth won reelection in 2008 with 59 percent. It was a blow-out, but still not enough of a margin to take a 20 point swing. This is a wave Todd Lally could catch.

H/t Red State.