Friday, May 30, 2014

Great News For McConnell

A new Rasmusson poll shows that those voters who backed Bevin in the primary are coming back to McConnell for the general election.

The new poll has McConnell beating Alison Ludergan Grimes 48-41 percent among likely voters.  This is a significant shift, given that poll after poll before the primary showed the race as neck and neck.

According the the poll, McConnell now has the backing of 76 percent of Republicans and 27 percent of Kentucky Democrats.  Grimes has 67 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Republicans. Grimes is ahead of unaffiliated voters by three points.

Before the primary, one out of four Bevin supporters planned to vote for Grimes in the general if Bevin lost.  That margin was unsustainable. To the extent that the Bevin supporters truly thought that McConnell was not conservative enough, it never made any sense to think that Grimes would be more conservative than McConnell.

Grimes's appeal to the Bevin supporters could never offer anything substantive, just dislike for McConnell. Most Bevin supporters, however, were motivated in the primary by substance, not atmospherics. They sincerely thought that Bevin was the more conservative candidate.  He was not, in my view, but no matter:  it is beyond dispute that McConnell is much more conservative than Grimes.

I predict that Republican voters will further unite behind McConnell as the general election draws nearer.  Grimes claims that she is an "independent Kentucky woman."  That is beside the point. If elected, Harry Reid will be the boss of her.  Literally.  She will have no choice but to vote with his caucus

No comments: