Derby Day Was Not A Good Day For Hillary

Derby day did not start out well for Senator Hillary Clinton, and it just got worse. Based upon an admittedly unscientific survey of the crowd arriving at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Clinton supporters were few and far between. Fans of Senator Barack Obama, in contrast, were everywhere to be seen.

Obama had a small army of volunteers holding up signs for passing motorists and marching up and down Central Avenue handing out lapel stickers, which were accepted by a wide range of racing fans dressed in everything from infield t-shirt attire to the most expensive suits, dresses and hats.

I spotted only one lonely Clinton volunteer lamely holding up a campaign sign, which prompted me to wonder what the Clinton camp was thinking not to have more people on the ground talking up Hillary at the event that probably drew more Kentucky and Indiana voters than any other this year. Maybe she thought she already has the Kentucky and Indiana primaries sewn up, and that a cameo appearance of Chelsea Clinton on Millionaire's Row would suffice. My sense from the crowd, however, is that Hillary's level of support in this region may not be as strong as she thinks.

Then, of course, there was the outcome of the Derby itself. Hillary's gender politics play -- picking Eight Belles to win -- boomeranged on her in a big way. One could not help but wonder whether the tragic outcome of the race foreshadowed a disastrous finish for the Clinton campaign. To be sure, unlike Eight Belles, Hillary would survive a second place finish and come back to fight another day (the Clintons always do), but the analogy Hillary brought on herself did little to create momentum in the closing stretch of her current race.

Hillary can take solace in the fact that Barack's pick -- Colonel John -- did not even finish in the money. But even so, Derby 134 simply was not Hillary's day and it was largely of her own doing.

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Horse Analogies (Cont.)

Former Solicitor General Ted Olson, a Rudy Guiliani supporter, has recently "likened the nomination process to a horse race," reports MSNBC.com's Vick Zast -- an analogy that was already noted by this blogger last November. Zast continues:

Olson, of course, has suggested that the former mayor of New York City is mimetic of a talented 3-year-old colt that hasn’t yet competed in a race that suits his running style. Scarborough and many other political observers believe the race goes to the candidates fastest from the starting gate. Recent history, both in politics and horse racing, illustrates that they both can be right.

Zast also explains the similarities of the upcoming primaries to the Derby prep races:

For all practical purposes, the late March/early April stakes races for Kentucky Derby candidates are the same as Super Tuesday is for presidential aspirants. Win or do well in one of them and running in the Derby is a foregone conclusion. Flop at the end, without benefit of a fast start, and you’ll find yourself sitting on the sidelines.

This last set of preps, not the preps we are watching now, determines the Kentucky Derby field. It includes the Florida Derby (Gr.1) on March 29, the Santa Anita Derby (Gr.1) and Wood Memorial (Gr.1) on April 5, and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Gr.1) and Arkansas Derby (Gr.2) on April 12.

So, in other words, all we have seen thus far are caucuses and primaries that don't qualify as real races. What counts are the upcoming contests, such as the Florida Derby (where Giuliani will finally emerge from the starting gate), the California race (where John McCain, Mitt Romney and Giuliani will likely run neck-and-neck), the Arkansas Derby (which is Mike Huckabee's race to lose) . . . okay, the analogy breaks down eventually, but one gets the point.

Speaking of Huckabee (and also as predicted by this blogger last November), he remains well positioned to place at the Republican Convention -- that is, be named the Republican vice presidential nominee ("winning the silver", as Romney might say, but that would be mixing sports metaphors).

Doug Mead, writing at Newsmax.com, touts a potential Romney-Huckabee ticket as "a great team." Mead argues that "[t]here is no way either one will win in a general election without having the other one on the ticket. . . . Neither one can win without the other. They are joined at the hip. " Think of two horses that are both needed to pull the GOP wagon.

It might be worth placing an exacta bet on Romney-Huckabee, who may be ready to reconcile in order to win. But I'm not so confident in that prediction so as to rule out other exotic bets before the Republican nomination is decided.

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.