Fischer Hypocrisy

Joe Arnold points out the hypocrisy of Greg Fischer's new ad -- criticizing the JCPS school assignment plan -- after Fischer complained when Hal Heiner ran an ad that, you guessed it, criticized the JCPS school assignment plan.

After Heiner took the courageous step of calling out the failure of JCPS's assignment plan, Fischer responded . "This is a job for the school board," Fischer said, "The mayor doesn't control the system, so by politicizing our kids six weeks before a political race I think it shows poor leadership."

Well, apparently Fischer's internal polls showed him that voters were gravitating to Heiner's message on schools, so Fischer did more than just flip-flop: he copied the Heiner ad.

Fischer seems like a nice guy, but his lack of originality is truly shocking. It's one thing to triangulate your opponent's ideas after getting elected, but Fischer is just swiping Hal Heiner's good ideas right smack in the middle of the elections. He did the same thing with Heiner's transparency initiative, a project that Heiner led for years on Metro City Council.

And all this talk about Fischer the businessman makes me laugh. Anyone with half a brain and a trust fund can make a few million eventually. Hal Heiner, in contrast, is a self-made man.

If Fischer wins, he will serve for one term. He will get bored and frustrated by the complexity of the job, and voters will see that he is just not up to it.

Heiner and Fischer Tied

The WHAS 11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA -- which I am not, repeat not calling the "SUSA" poll -- shows that the Louisville mayoral race is tied at a statistical dead heat: Greg Fischer 47, Hal Heiner 45. Only five percent remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus four percent.

Fischer has moved up two points since the last poll. But given the Democrats' registration advantage, this poll is still very good for Heiner.

Most of the movement from the previous poll was offset by movement for the other candidate; that is, most of the change is a wash.

A few notes from the cross-tabs. First, Heiner improved with younger voters. To be sure, Fischer cancelled that gain out by making gains with older voters. It is extremely good news for Heiner, as the Republican, to appeal to the younger voters, particularly given how Barack Obama appeared to own the youth vote just two years ago. Wonder whether Heiner is the draw to this demographic, or his conservative message?

Second, both candidates have a gender gap. Fischer appeals to ladies, and Heiner to men. This reflects longstanding trends at the national party level. Taken together, the gender gap is 28 percent.

The one movement that is not offset by the other campaign is that Heiner has lost some support among Republicans, and Fischer has picked up that support without losing any points among Democrats. (Indeed, Fischer actually increased slightly.) This hearkens back to the early days of the campaign, when Fischer held a number of fundraisers that featured Republicans as hosts -- not big-time prominent Republicans, just people who are well-known and liked within their neighborhoods.

The Louisville Mayoral Race

It's the deadline to file for Mayor of Louisville, and at last count we are up to eleven candidates.

My prediction is that Greg Fischer will win. To be sure, he was an unimpressive candidate in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Since that loss, a local businessman sent Fischer to public speaking classes; apparently they worked. Now Fischer needs get professional help on his television commercials (although my boys thought the Fischer wrestling match ad against Bruce "Mud Man" Lunsford was the funniest commercial they have ever seen).

What convinces me that Fischer will win is the number of conservatives who have signed on to his campaign at the outset. These are smart, thoughtful business people for whom I have great respect. Their endorsement and contribution to Fischer's campaign matters.

Republican Hal Heiner must be furious at the number or Republicans who have bailed on him.

Fischer cannot be painted as the candidate of big business, however, due to the number of labor endorsements he received in his bid for Senate and his current campaign. That is, Fischer seems best poised to strike that sensitive balance between management and labor --between creating a climate that allows businesses to grow while also protecting the interests of union members. That's exactly the coalition that the next mayor of Louisville needs to govern effectively.

Sen. Seum, Stay Put!

Joe Arnold is reporting that GOP state senator Dan Seum is considering running for Mayor of Louisville.

"I've been in the Kentucky State Senate for 26 years, and I am the Majority Caucus Chairman," Seum said to WHAS11's Chase Cain, "which means the other 21 Republicans have voted me to a leadership position. And I have some power, I guess you might say. I've worked hard to get there and I'd have to give all that up to do this.. and that's a tough decision for me."

Republicans don't have the luxury of kissing off any of our seats in the Senate. We need Seum where he is. There are plenty of other qualified Republicans who could run. (Calling Steve Pence.)