It's Not a Tie

Notwithstanding its track-record of accurately predicting the final election results, I am not buying the WHAS11 SUSA poll's conclusion that Jack Conway is now tied with Rand Paul.

I do believe that the race has tightened. A lot. But not that much.

Those of us who opposed Paul in the primary knew that his nomination would make this a needlessly close election. Republicans nominated a candidate with more baggage than an Samsonite store.

The Conway commercial with the sheriffs -- in which Paul says he opposes the criminalization of non-violent crimes -- makes me cringe every time it airs, no matter how saturated the Conway campaign's buy. It was bound to move the polls. Perhaps the worst aspect of that ad is Paul's demeanor; his hair is disheveled and he is unusually inarticulate.

So the question must be asked: why didn't Trey Grayson use that video? If he didn't have it then he should have had something similar, given all the interviews Paul sat for during his father's two failed presidential runs.

Still, Paul is solidly conservative on fiscal issues in year when voters are fixated on the size of government and the national debt. It might not be pretty, but he will win.

SUSA Poll Shows Paul Up by 15

The latest WHAS11/ Courier-Journal poll by Survey USA shows Rand Paul has widened his lead over Jack Conway to 15 points. SUSA has the best track record for accuracy in polling Kentucky races.

Paul leads 55 to 40. That's a four point gain over last month, and a three point drop for Conway.

The poll shows an extraordinarily large gender gap; men are fleeing from Conway like he has bedbugs or something. Men favor Paul by 34 points. Among women, the gender gap is less pronounced: Conway leads by three.

Democrats are attempting to spin the poll as inaccurate by arguing that it over-samples Republicans. John Yarmuth said much the same thing in his interview with Joe Arnold about the 3rd Congressional district poll. What Democrats can't seem to grasp is that more voters are identifying themselves as Republican. That's not a problem of oversampling, but it is a problem for the Democrats.

Heiner and Fischer Tied

The WHAS 11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA -- which I am not, repeat not calling the "SUSA" poll -- shows that the Louisville mayoral race is tied at a statistical dead heat: Greg Fischer 47, Hal Heiner 45. Only five percent remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus four percent.

Fischer has moved up two points since the last poll. But given the Democrats' registration advantage, this poll is still very good for Heiner.

Most of the movement from the previous poll was offset by movement for the other candidate; that is, most of the change is a wash.

A few notes from the cross-tabs. First, Heiner improved with younger voters. To be sure, Fischer cancelled that gain out by making gains with older voters. It is extremely good news for Heiner, as the Republican, to appeal to the younger voters, particularly given how Barack Obama appeared to own the youth vote just two years ago. Wonder whether Heiner is the draw to this demographic, or his conservative message?

Second, both candidates have a gender gap. Fischer appeals to ladies, and Heiner to men. This reflects longstanding trends at the national party level. Taken together, the gender gap is 28 percent.

The one movement that is not offset by the other campaign is that Heiner has lost some support among Republicans, and Fischer has picked up that support without losing any points among Democrats. (Indeed, Fischer actually increased slightly.) This hearkens back to the early days of the campaign, when Fischer held a number of fundraisers that featured Republicans as hosts -- not big-time prominent Republicans, just people who are well-known and liked within their neighborhoods.