Realclearpolitics Weighs in on McConnell Poll

Realclearpolitics analyzes the dueling polls on Kentucky's U.S. Senate race and concludes that McConnell looks safe:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been advertising since late last year in advance of this November's vote, and he is determined not to find himself in dire straits come the Fall. While former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle fell victim to the rival party a few years ago, McConnell looks like he's in much better position than his erstwhile colleague, a new poll for the incumbent's campaign shows.

The Voter/Consumer Research poll, conducted for McConnell, surveyed 600 likely voters between 5/21-22 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. McConnell and two-time gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford, the Democratic nominee, were tested.
General Election MatchupMcConnell....50 (-2 from last, 1/9)Lunsford......39 (+2)

While it is a partisan poll, VCR is a well-respected firm, and McConnell's lead shouldn't be surprising. A robo-poll company released a survey last week showing the two virtually tied, and to be fair, an 11-point lead is not a huge one for the top Senate Republican to have. But McConnell is well-liked; 55% of state voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared with just 32% who see him unfavorably, and 57% approve of his job performance.

Both the favorable rating and job performance rating are down slightly since January, but one would expect that given Democrats' slamming him throughout the primary season. Lunsford has shown some growth, as 34% of the state has a favorable image of him, up eleven points since January. Just 20% have an unfavorable view.

With 46% of voters undecided about Lunsford, McConnell has a big opening through which to define his new rival. While Lunsford will have plenty of money to spend given his own deep pockets and willingness to use them, McConnell could further dip into the $7.7 million war chest he had on hand at the end of April to run Lunsford's negatives through the roof.

National Democrats could use some of their financial advantage to cut McConnell's money advantage, and Lunsford will likely be well-funded himself. But causing the incumbent serious heartburn may take a lot more work.

I don't see national Democrats pouring money into a state that has rejected Barack Obama as decisively as Kentucky. The whole reason DSCC chair Chuck Schumer recruited Bruce Lunsford, after all, is because national Dems did not want to spend money in Kentucky and therefore needed a self-funder like millionaire Lunsford.

McConnell Approval Rating Rises Again

SurveyUSA, a poll known for underestimating support of Republicans, shows that Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's already strong level of support increased last month.

WHAS reported that the poll (which it commissioned) shows that 52 percent of those adults surveyed approve of McConnell's job performance as U.S. Senator. Only 39 percent of those surveyed disapproved of the job McConnell is doing; that number is down from 44 percent last month. Like last month's poll, McConnell continues to show no gender gap.

The Story the C-J Refuses to Cover

Somebody correct me if I've missed it. A few days ago, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's campaign released new poll numbers that showed him with a 61 percent approval rating and double-digit leads over every conceivable candidate, with the exception of David Hawpe.

Yet I have not seen that story covered in the Courier-Journal, or the Lexington Herald-Leader, or on local television news. National journalists covered it. But the Kentucky dinosaur media ignore it. Sometimes, media bias becomes most evident by the absence of coverage.

McConnell's Lead Increases to Double Digits

Both parties' presidential primaries continue to shock and amaze us. In Kentucky's U.S. Senate race, however, the trajectory continues upward for Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.

McConnell's campaign released the results of a new poll conducted January 6th through January 8th by Voter/Consumer Research. The results show McConnell beating all candidates -- declared and rumored -- by double digits.

Check out McConnell's approval ratings: 61% approve of McConnell's job performance, and only 29% disapprove. Those are numbers that President Bush and the Congress as a whole must envy.

Here's how a McConnell match-up would look: if the election were held today, McConnell would win 52% to 37% over Bruce Lunsford -- a 15% margin; 53% to 35% over Charlie Owen -- an 18% margin; 54% to 32% over Greg Fischer -- a 22% margin; and 55% to 32% over Andrew Horne -- a 23% margin.

To reiterate for those Demo-blogs so besotted with Andrew Horne that they can't see straight: McConnell would beat Andrew Horne by 23 percent. To be sure, those numbers will narrow if Horne ever runs a real campaign. Nonetheless, that's a formidable gap to overcome.

In addition, Lunsford's numbers show that even though he has thrown good money after bad (more than $ 14 million) in his quest for higher office, his personal fortune can't buy him name ID; 64% still either do not know of Lunsford or have no opinion of him. Those are numbers that should give Charlie Owen and Greg Fischer pause as each contemplates running as the latest rich-guy wannabe senator.

New Poll Shows Dems Should Stop Licking Their Chops

Not a single vote has been cast (other than by absentees) in this year's elections, and Democrats are already spinning the anticipated results. They assume that a loss for Governor Ernie Fletcher spells defeat for Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell when he seeks reelection next year.

A Rasmusson Poll, however, flatly contradicts the Democrats' electoral fantasies. This was no push poll: Rasmusson is an independent pollster, and one of the most respected in the business.

Even at a time when public approval of Congress has sunk to an historic low, McConnell's favorable rating among Kentucky voters is quite high: 56 percent. Moreover, nearly one out of every three Kentucky voters views McConnell very favorably. That's alot of highly motivated voters to post yard signs and bumpers stickers -- and to donate.

Rasmusson notes that McConnell has been targeted with a number of negative TV ads recently. And though 59 percent of Kentuckians would like to bring our troops home within the year, McConnell's negative rating is only 36 percent.

Here are the numbers against two of McConnell's likely opponents. If McConnell faced Attorney General Greg Stumbo today, McConnell would win (48 to 41 percent). Against State Auditor Crit Luallen, McConnell would be reelected, 49 to 39 percent.

Rasmusson noted that "given the difficult political environment for Republicans both nationally and in Kentucky, McConnell’s numbers aren’t all that bad."