Realclearpolitics Weighs in on McConnell Poll

Realclearpolitics analyzes the dueling polls on Kentucky's U.S. Senate race and concludes that McConnell looks safe:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has been advertising since late last year in advance of this November's vote, and he is determined not to find himself in dire straits come the Fall. While former Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle fell victim to the rival party a few years ago, McConnell looks like he's in much better position than his erstwhile colleague, a new poll for the incumbent's campaign shows.

The Voter/Consumer Research poll, conducted for McConnell, surveyed 600 likely voters between 5/21-22 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. McConnell and two-time gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford, the Democratic nominee, were tested.
General Election MatchupMcConnell....50 (-2 from last, 1/9)Lunsford......39 (+2)

While it is a partisan poll, VCR is a well-respected firm, and McConnell's lead shouldn't be surprising. A robo-poll company released a survey last week showing the two virtually tied, and to be fair, an 11-point lead is not a huge one for the top Senate Republican to have. But McConnell is well-liked; 55% of state voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared with just 32% who see him unfavorably, and 57% approve of his job performance.

Both the favorable rating and job performance rating are down slightly since January, but one would expect that given Democrats' slamming him throughout the primary season. Lunsford has shown some growth, as 34% of the state has a favorable image of him, up eleven points since January. Just 20% have an unfavorable view.

With 46% of voters undecided about Lunsford, McConnell has a big opening through which to define his new rival. While Lunsford will have plenty of money to spend given his own deep pockets and willingness to use them, McConnell could further dip into the $7.7 million war chest he had on hand at the end of April to run Lunsford's negatives through the roof.

National Democrats could use some of their financial advantage to cut McConnell's money advantage, and Lunsford will likely be well-funded himself. But causing the incumbent serious heartburn may take a lot more work.

I don't see national Democrats pouring money into a state that has rejected Barack Obama as decisively as Kentucky. The whole reason DSCC chair Chuck Schumer recruited Bruce Lunsford, after all, is because national Dems did not want to spend money in Kentucky and therefore needed a self-funder like millionaire Lunsford.

SUSA Poll Shows McConnell Up

The SurveyUSA Poll, linked by Mark Hebert, shows that Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's approval rating rose four percent last month -- his highest since June. This is significant because the SUSA Poll tends to underestimate Republican support; it represents a worst case scenario for GOP candidates.

The poll shows that 52 percent of Kentuckians approve of McConnell. Even among Democrats, McConnell's approval rating is 42 percent, with only six percent undecided.

McConnell has no gender gap -- none. His support is roughly even among all age groups, just slightly higher among 35-54 year olds, who constitute the largest block of voters in Kentucky. McConnell leads by a comfortable margin in every region of Kentucky except Louisville, where his approval rating is 44 percent; 45 percent disapprove, and 10 percent are undecided.

Page One's reaction to the poll says it all:

What was that about him being woah vulnerable? What was that about all the awesome, amazing grassroots smoking him out of his Republican hole? . . . We have to face the facts. And unless something drastic happens, McConnell wins in November.

Of those polled, 78 percent ranked terrorism as the most important issue facing the next president, followed by immigration (67 percent). That bodes well for John McCain carrying Kentucky.

Perhaps the biggest loser in the SUSA Poll is the Courier-Journal. Notwithstanding that paper's relentless editorializing against McConnell, his support actually increased.

Great News For McConnell

A new Rasmusson poll shows that those voters who backed Bevin in the primary are coming back to McConnell for the general election.

The new poll has McConnell beating Alison Ludergan Grimes 48-41 percent among likely voters.  This is a significant shift, given that poll after poll before the primary showed the race as neck and neck.

According the the poll, McConnell now has the backing of 76 percent of Republicans and 27 percent of Kentucky Democrats.  Grimes has 67 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Republicans. Grimes is ahead of unaffiliated voters by three points.

Before the primary, one out of four Bevin supporters planned to vote for Grimes in the general if Bevin lost.  That margin was unsustainable. To the extent that the Bevin supporters truly thought that McConnell was not conservative enough, it never made any sense to think that Grimes would be more conservative than McConnell.

Grimes's appeal to the Bevin supporters could never offer anything substantive, just dislike for McConnell. Most Bevin supporters, however, were motivated in the primary by substance, not atmospherics. They sincerely thought that Bevin was the more conservative candidate.  He was not, in my view, but no matter:  it is beyond dispute that McConnell is much more conservative than Grimes.

I predict that Republican voters will further unite behind McConnell as the general election draws nearer.  Grimes claims that she is an "independent Kentucky woman."  That is beside the point. If elected, Harry Reid will be the boss of her.  Literally.  She will have no choice but to vote with his caucus

Hebert: "McConnell's Job Approval Soars in May"

Mark Hebert is reporting that the new Survey USA/WHAS 11 poll shows that Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell's job approval "jumped a whopping 11 points this month," up to 57 percent.

These numbers have to be extremely good news for the Senate Minority Leader, who saw one pollster (Rasmussen) release numbers earlier this week showing McConnell trailing Bruce Lunsford in this year's senate race. Survey USA has not done any polling yet on the McConnell-Lunsford race but a Lexington Herald-Leader poll showed McConnell with a 12 point lead over Lunsford.

The breakdown on McConnell's Survey USA job approval numbers shows his biggest support coming from eastern Kentucky (62%-32%) and among men (65%-33%). McConnell is even polling fairly well among democrats (45%-50%) and African-Americans (57%-40%).

The SUSA poll therefore reconfirms findings from McConnell's internal poll and the Lexington-Herald Leader poll that show McConnell leading Lunsford.

McConnell's 51% Approval Rating Silences Demo-Blogs For Now

We haven't heard much from the Demo-blogs about the approval ratings for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell since Survey USA/WHAS 11 released their latest poll numbers on December 22. And no wonder.

This survey "shows a huge turnaround" in McConnell's popularity, according to WHAS 11's Mark Hebert. He reports that 51% of Kentucky voters in the survey voiced approval of the job McConnell is doing.

Survey USA's number is likely a significant underestimate of McConnell's support, given that this polling group historically registers higher numbers for Democrats in Kentucky than that found in other polls. For example, Survey USA reported much lower approval ratings for McConnell in its November poll -- the source of Hebert's "huge turnaround" characterization of McConnell's latest showing.

Moreover, the latest Survey USA poll had Senator Hillary Clinton defeating every major Republican candidate in a head-to-head match-up. If McConnell is ahead in a voting sample that favors Hillary for President, then McConnell must really be popular.

These results cannot be good news for the announced Democratic Senatorial candidates, who already had their hands full trying to dissuade Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer from joining the race. According to the Demo-blogs, Lunsford's and Fischer's unpardonable sins are that they are businessmen who have donated to Republicans -- including, in Lunsford's case, to Senator McConnell himself. The horror!

The Survey USA poll also shows that the economy and health care are the top two issues for Kentucky voters. In this regard, the lawyer-physician Dr. Michael Cassaro, Esq., may have a leg up on Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, who will need a crash course to learn what to say other than "'Iraq Iraq Katrina Bush Iraq Bush war war war.'”

New Senate Poll Shows McConnell Up

The Rasmussen poll continues to lurch along, this time towards Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell. The poll shows McConnell up by seven points (48-41) over perennial candidate Bruce Lunsford.

Last month, Rasmussen asserted that McConnell was down by five points. It's hard to believe a poll that swings twelve points for no apparent reason.

McConnell's favorable rating, according to the poll, is 56 percent (40 percent unfavorable). Lunsford is viewed favorably by only 43 percent (46 percent negative).

Aside from its weird volatility, the Rasmussen poll is good reading for political junkies who like irony and understatement:

Lunsford founded a health care company in 1985 that has been a topic of conversation in earlier campaigns and will likely be scrutinized again between now and November.

"Topic of conversation"? When Ben Chandler essentially called Lunsford Dr. Kevorkian, and accused him of dumping comatose medicare patients, that was a "topic of conversation"?

Rasmussen also runs something called Rasmussen markets, where participants can buy and trade politicians like a fantasy baseball team. According to Rasmussen markets, McConnell has a 60 percent chance of keeping his job.

Lunsford is celebrating the new poll results by offering to match, dollar for dollar, all contributions to his campaign before June 30.

Voters Tell SurveyUSA "No Thanks" When Asked About Bruce

Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's lead over Bruce Lunsford has grown, according to SurveyUSA's latest poll released yesterday. According to SurveyUSA:

In an election for United States Senator from Kentucky held today, 08/12/08, incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell defeats Democrat Bruce Lunsford 52% to 40%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington, and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released eight weeks ago, McConnell is up 2 points; Lunsford is down 6. Among men, McConnell had led by 8, now leads by 11. Among women, McConnell had led by 2, now leads by 11. Among voters age 18 to 49, McConnell had led by 5, now leads by 6; among voters 50+, McConnell had led by 5, now leads by 11. McConnell holds 83% of Republican voters; Lunsford holds 63% of Democrats, little changed from eight weeks ago. Then, McConnell led by 10 among Independents; today, Independents evenly split between McConnell and Lunsford. Lunsford leads in the Louisville area by 6 points, down from 13 points eight weeks ago; McConnell continues to lead in the rest of the state.

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

New Poll Shows Dems Should Stop Licking Their Chops

Not a single vote has been cast (other than by absentees) in this year's elections, and Democrats are already spinning the anticipated results. They assume that a loss for Governor Ernie Fletcher spells defeat for Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell when he seeks reelection next year.

A Rasmusson Poll, however, flatly contradicts the Democrats' electoral fantasies. This was no push poll: Rasmusson is an independent pollster, and one of the most respected in the business.

Even at a time when public approval of Congress has sunk to an historic low, McConnell's favorable rating among Kentucky voters is quite high: 56 percent. Moreover, nearly one out of every three Kentucky voters views McConnell very favorably. That's alot of highly motivated voters to post yard signs and bumpers stickers -- and to donate.

Rasmusson notes that McConnell has been targeted with a number of negative TV ads recently. And though 59 percent of Kentuckians would like to bring our troops home within the year, McConnell's negative rating is only 36 percent.

Here are the numbers against two of McConnell's likely opponents. If McConnell faced Attorney General Greg Stumbo today, McConnell would win (48 to 41 percent). Against State Auditor Crit Luallen, McConnell would be reelected, 49 to 39 percent.

Rasmusson noted that "given the difficult political environment for Republicans both nationally and in Kentucky, McConnell’s numbers aren’t all that bad."

Rasmussen's Curious U.S. Senate Poll

Page One catalogues the Demo-blogs that are positively giddy over a new Rasmussen poll showing Bruce Lunsford five points ahead of Mitch McConnell. But "[t[he oddest result from the poll," says Barefoot and Progressive, "is that people tend to have a favorable view of Mitch." Odd indeed for a poll purporting to show McConnell with only 44% of voter support to also report that he has a 52% approval rating.

Something obviously is amiss in Rasmussen's survey methodology. Most likely fault lies in the fact that the poll was conducted by automated computer. Indeed, in another survey taken by live people at the same time as the Rasmussen poll, McConnell is up by 11%. As TheHill.com reports, "[t]he Voter Consumer Research poll showed the incumbent leading 50-39." These numbers are consistent with the Lexington Herald-Leader's poll from before Lunsford's primary victory that "showed McConnell leading 48-36."

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Bothered By Bevin's Push Poll

Two nights ago, I was called by a polling firm; another Registered Republican I know received a similar call.   Of course, the pollster did not identify who paid for the poll, but it seemed clear to both of us that it was the Bevin campaign or someone promoting Bevin.  The focus was on the Republican primary for the Kentucky U.S. Senate race with lots of questions about the Tea Party.  If it was Bevin, he should apologize.

I answered the questions without complaint until the point when I was asked to react to different "statements."  For example, I was asked for my reaction to the "fact" that Sen. Mitch McConnell has never held a job in the private sector.  As I pointed out to the pollster, that "statement" is simply not true.  McConnell was a lawyer, in private practice in Louisville.  As any attorney who has spent time in private practice can attest, it is hard work, not just substantively, but in terms of running the business side of it.  So I asked the pollster whether he still wanted me to react to his false statement and he said "No, I think we got it." 

He started talking really fast at that point because he wanted to get me off the phone. He asked another whopper:  How did I feel about the fact that McConnell spends most of his time in Washington, D.C.?  I pointed out that again, the premise was false.  McConnell spends as much time in Kentucky as possible.  He loves his Cards and almost never misses a home game.  He actually loves the Commonwealth and his time here.

To be sure, he has to be in Washington for votes, and running the caucus.  The notion that McConnell has "gone native" is incorrect, however.  McConnell once observed that the fastest way to lose one's convictions in D.C. is to go to the cocktail parties; it can become too tempting to want to garner favor with the Washington Post and the elites that look to it to shape their opinions.  So McConnell avoids the D.C. cocktail party circuit, and Kentucky and the country are the better for it.

Even more offensive was a series of questions about McConnell's net worth. He has a house in Washington, and real estate there -- unlike the rest of the country -- has skyrocketed along with the deficit. (Seen the Hunger Games? Things are different in the Capital.)

The clear implication from this line of "statements" was that if McConnell's net worth has increased while he was in office, then he must be corrupt, or at the very least, that the increase in McConnell's net worth is attributable only to the taxpayers paying his salary.

There were no "statements" asking me to react to Secretary Elaine Chao's family coming to America with nothing, fleeing the Communists, and through hard work building a successful business that enabled four daughters (including Elaine) to attend Harvard Business School.  (The Chao's recently donated $40 million to Harvard Business School.) There were no "statements" regarding whether McConnell and Chao file joint tax returns.

 The line of "statements" about McConnell's net worth was a transparent, disgusting attempt to smear a public servant.  It's the sort of class warfare that we have come to expect from the Democrats.  It has no place in the Republican primary.

Mystery Solved

Bruce Lunsford's press secretary, Allison Haley, this week dismissed internal polling numbers from the McConnell campaign that showed the Senate Republican Leader enjoys a comfortable job approval rating. Said Haley, "It's certainly mysterious that this poll shows McConnell's job approval so much higher than several independent polls in the past few weeks.”

Haley's "mystery" was solved today when a new independent poll showed confirmed the accuracy of McConnell's internal poll. (See post below.)

The difference in how the two campaigns reacted to the polling data -- it's a classic example of projection. Lunsford's staffers assume that McConnell would commission a bogus poll, to trot out at cocktail parties and cook-outs because that is what they expect from their boss, the perennial candidate. McConnell, unlike Lunsford, does not view public service as an escalator for social climbing. McConnell, unlike Lunsford, understands that a small state like Kentucky needs as much seniority in its Congressional delegation as possible in order to fight for our interests.

Bunning in His Own Words

Twice during Sen. Jim Bunning's conference call with reporters, an ambulance blared its siren in the background. It seemed a fitting sound effect for a campaign that does not have enough energy (or money) to get off the ground.

Bunning was quite articulate -- and genuinely conservative -- when discussing policy. That made the rest of the call even sadder: when taking questions about his own race, Bunning sounded unhinged. His logic became hard to follow and his tone became shrill and condescending.

For example, Bunning said that he won't be doing much polling not because his campaign is broke but rather because "there are a lot of free polls coming out so why should I poll?" He cited the Courier-Journal as an example of a "non-partisan poll" that he could rely on. And he did not appear to be joking or engaging in sarcasm. To be sure, whatever media outlet commissions a poll would like us to accept it as non-partisan, but that's a leap of faith no serious candidate can afford to take.

However, Bunning is not relying on the C-J to get him reelected. He's talking to a former adviser from the McCain campaign (and we know how well that turned out). Heaven help the poor man.

Bunning insisted that it was his idea for Secretary of State Trey Grayson to form an exploratory committee for statewide federal office, and that he "would have preferred Trey filed earlier." Yet Bunning maintains that the Greyson exploratory committee could be used down the road: "people don't always run in the year they file."

He conceded that Grayson's exploratory committee could be used for the 2010 Senate race but said that it also could be used for "some larger race in 2011." Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no federal race in Kentucky in 2011 -- barring a special election.

He denied that the Grayson committee would dry up his own fundraising, in direct contradiction of his complaint that Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell's fundraising had precluded Bunning from raising much money by competing for scarce dollars.

Bunning's logic on McConnell was flawed in other respects. On the one hand, he complained that McConnell "wants to run everybody." On the other hand, Bunning attributed every Republican Senate seat lost to McConnell. He called McConnell "selfish," notwithstanding that it was McConnell who saved Bunning from losing his last election. Bunning's real problem is that he cannot win without McConnell once again rescuing him.

Bunning said he "won't walk into 2010 with less than $1 million," conceding that the race will cost between $7-10 million. His next financial report is due in mid July.

Thank goodness Trey Grayson is not waiting to mid July to see the inevitable -- that Bunning's 30 year career in public service, while honorable and consistently conservative, is coming to an end that's painful to watch.

McConnell Takes 48-43 Lead in new Bluegrass Poll

A New Bluegrass Poll, commissioned by The Courier-Journal, WHAS-11, The Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT, was released today showing Senator McConnell up by five points with less than a week until election day. This is the same poll that was previously dead even when other polls showed McConnell up by several points.

The poll also finds that only 27% of Kentuckians view President Obama favorably. As Obama's Kentucky Candidate, it's no surprise that Grimes is struggling to find support in a state that has been so disproportionally harmed by Obama's policies. Kentuckians also understand the significance of Senator McConnell potentially becoming the Majority Leader of the United States Senate, a position that no Kentuckian has held since 1947. As Governor Huckabee pointed out last week at the Turn Kentucky Red Rally, every other state, big or small, would do anything for the influence that comes from having the majority leader as its senator. On November 4th, we have the opportunity to make our voices heard and restore this nation, starting by reelecting Senator McConnell.

Who You Gonna Crush?

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell's quote in yesterday's New York Times is getting taken wildly out of context.

McConnell did not state that he would crush the Tea Party. Here's the actual quote:  “I think we are going to crush them everywhere,” the Times reported McConnell stating. “I don’t think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country.”

But as Truth Revolt pointed out (and as even the Times article reflects), the "they" to whom McConnell referred was not the Tea Party generally but rather the Senate Conservative Fund -- the Jim DeMint group that's been running TV ads against McConnell here, and a big Matt Bevin backer.

Note the distinction that McConnell is drawing:

I’ve always been and continue to be a big supporter of the Tea Party and the conservative change it’s bringing to Washington. One of the biggest obstacles to that change, however, is the Senate Conservatives Fund, a rogue political operation that has co-opted the Liberty movement for its own enrichment to the detriment of the conservative cause. This is a point that I have been making repeatedly and energetically over the past several months, because in my view this group has deceived a lot of good people. They claim to share our goals but undermine them at every turn. I think they should be stopped, and I don’t mind saying so.

Good for McConnell for calling out DeMint and his crazy band of so-called purists.  These people have elected more Democrats than the DNC.  Plainly they have no interest in actually winning elections or governing.

Kentuckians For Strong Leadership, moreover, has a new poll that shows McConnell crushing Matt Bevin -- including among self-identified members of the Tea Party:  McConnell beats Bevin 60 to 23 among Tea Party Supporters. McConnell actually polls better among conservatives than moderates.  McConnell's lead over Bevin is widening as the primary draws nearer.

Bevin is about to get crushed, deservedly so.  His campaign has been a complete waste of time and money.  Just a few years ago, Bevin looked at running against Yarmuth.  He even went to D.C. and met with some of the party types, but after kicking the tires, took a pass.  He will not get another such opportunity.  At least not as a Republican.

McConnell Approval Rating Rises Again

SurveyUSA, a poll known for underestimating support of Republicans, shows that Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's already strong level of support increased last month.

WHAS reported that the poll (which it commissioned) shows that 52 percent of those adults surveyed approve of McConnell's job performance as U.S. Senator. Only 39 percent of those surveyed disapproved of the job McConnell is doing; that number is down from 44 percent last month. Like last month's poll, McConnell continues to show no gender gap.

McConnell's Lead Increases to Double Digits

Both parties' presidential primaries continue to shock and amaze us. In Kentucky's U.S. Senate race, however, the trajectory continues upward for Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell.

McConnell's campaign released the results of a new poll conducted January 6th through January 8th by Voter/Consumer Research. The results show McConnell beating all candidates -- declared and rumored -- by double digits.

Check out McConnell's approval ratings: 61% approve of McConnell's job performance, and only 29% disapprove. Those are numbers that President Bush and the Congress as a whole must envy.

Here's how a McConnell match-up would look: if the election were held today, McConnell would win 52% to 37% over Bruce Lunsford -- a 15% margin; 53% to 35% over Charlie Owen -- an 18% margin; 54% to 32% over Greg Fischer -- a 22% margin; and 55% to 32% over Andrew Horne -- a 23% margin.

To reiterate for those Demo-blogs so besotted with Andrew Horne that they can't see straight: McConnell would beat Andrew Horne by 23 percent. To be sure, those numbers will narrow if Horne ever runs a real campaign. Nonetheless, that's a formidable gap to overcome.

In addition, Lunsford's numbers show that even though he has thrown good money after bad (more than $ 14 million) in his quest for higher office, his personal fortune can't buy him name ID; 64% still either do not know of Lunsford or have no opinion of him. Those are numbers that should give Charlie Owen and Greg Fischer pause as each contemplates running as the latest rich-guy wannabe senator.

Fancy That

The Fancy Farm picture on the first page of today's Courier-Journal says it all:  the Republicans are young, energetic and on their feet; the Democrats are middle aged, tired and sitting on their party mascots, to put it politely.  It brought to mind the latest SUSA poll:  Republican Leader Mitch McConnell is winning both the youth and senior vote, while Alison Grimes' coalition is at the crisis point, composed mostly of middle agers.

Clearly McConnell has momentum.  That was evident from the level of enthusiasm of his supporters yesterday.  They were far more relaxed and confident than last year, when general unease divided the right field at Fancy Farm.  One never knew when or where an isolated Matt Bevin supporter would ring a cowbell next.  This year, though Bevin did attend the Graves County Republican breakfast (which he curiously boycotted last year), he made no podium remarks comparable to his last year's, "look how smart I am to make a literary allusion," quoting of John Donne's poem about the tolling bell. Indeed, he had no microphone at Fancy Farm at all this year.  Bevin sat on a bench near the back of the school cafeteria where the breakfast was held. Good for him, though, for at least showing up this year -- and for biting his tongue when one of the speakers made reference to McConnell's landslide victory in the primary.

And good for Senator Rand Paul, who delivered poetry also -- a lampoonish Lundergan-Grimes limerick.  Attorney General Jack Conway continued as character foil to Paul.  Conway spent most of his speech crowing about how great Jack Conway is as Attorney General, and how great it would be to elect Jack Conway as Governor, before ending with an, oh, and you should vote for Grimes for Senate also.  Paul, in contrast, said nothing about himself during his speech -- despite that he is the Republican frontrunner for the Presidency -- and remained the bigger candidate and man than the one who thought Aqua Buddha would get him elected to the U.S. Senate.

The Paul-Conway contrast was just one example of difference between the Republican and Democratic speakers at this year's Fancy Farm.  The Republicans had their National A-Team, led by the likely next Majority Leader of the U.S. Senate and possibly the next President of the United States.  The Democrats had their farm-league club.  Where was that Major League pitcher like President Barack Obama's teleprompter when the Democrats really needed it?

The only mentions of Obama (and Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid) were by the Republicans.  The Grimes supporters awkwardly responded to their party leaders' names.  Obama and Reid were like  embarrassing, distant relatives at yesterday's Democratic family gathering.  The Grimes folks mostly just tried to ignore them, though Grimes did not dispute the Republicans' repeated point that her first vote as U.S. Senator would be for Uncle Harry to be her leader.

Other Democrats oddly missing at Fancy Farm were minorities.  In his breakfast speech Paul continued to advocate for the party of Lincoln to make more of an effort to reclaim its historic support from the African American community. But, again the C-J's picture tells a story:  there are no African Americans in sight, either on the Republican or the Democratic side.  From personal observation, however, I can say there were some African Americans and other minorities among McConnell's supporters who were outside the lens of the C-J's camera.

But I can't say I saw any minorities anywhere on the Grimes side.  This recollection seemed all the more significant this morning when I read in the C-J about a Northern Kentucky Democrat tweeting that McConnell's wife, former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, "isn't from KY, she is Asian."

Indeed, whether you were born in Kentucky seemed to be a Democratic talking point yesterday.  A self-appointed "news" videographer from the Grimes camp -- at least I figured so since he was wearing a Grimes tee shirt -- came over to the McConnell side to interview Republicans.  One of his questions was whether we knew that McConnell wasn't born in Kentucky.

You know you are winning when the other side starts making the birther argument.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Even Obama Supporters Prefer McConnell Over Lunsford

Here's a significant poll reported earlier today at Cincinnati.com:

Kentucky's college students have selected Democrat Barack Obama for president and Republican Mitch McConnell for senate in a statewide mock election run by the Secretary of State's office.

Nearly 2,200 students from Northern Kentucky University in Highland Heights and 11 other universities and colleges participated in the election, according to a statement from Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a Boone County Republican.
Voting lasted for about a month.
In the presidential race, Obama won with 53.5 percent over Republican John McCain, who finished with 42.4 percent.
In the U.S. Senate race, McConnell, the incumbent and the Senate GOP leader, defeated Democrat Bruce Lunsford, 50.2 percent to 48.8 percent.

Why is this student poll significant? It shows that even among the demographic group that is the strongest for Obama in Kentucky, McConnell still enjoys the support of the majority.

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

McConnell Leads Lunsford

While McConnell took on the dangerous task of herding votes for the economic recovery legislation, Lunsford continued to sit on the fence. In a news report last night, WHAS11 could not get an answer from Lunsford as to whether he supports or opposes the bill. Nor have we been able to find an answer from Lunsford in today's news. Lunsford's silence speaks volumes as to who is a true leader in the Senate race.

Speaking of leading, the latest Rasmussen poll has McConnell up nine points over Lunsford:

Rasmussen's poll of 500 "likely" voters, conducted on Sept. 30, gives McConnell a 51 to 42 percent lead over Lunsford, with 2 percent of respondents choosing "other" - though no other candidates are on the ballot - and 5 percent indicating they were "not sure" of their choice.

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

McConnell Lead Increases to 17

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell released results of an internal poll that shows him up by 17 points. Here's the national take from Realclearpolitics:

McConnell is in fine shape in his bid for re-election, a new survey for his campaign finds. Though Democrats have plenty of Senate opportunities elsewhere, the Kentucky Republican doesn't look like one of them.

McConnell is viewed favorable by 52 percent of those polled, and unfavorably by 33 percent.

In comparison, check out Bruce Lunsford's numbers: 30 percent favorable, and 36 percent unfavorable. (Ouch!) More people don't like Lunsford than like him. Nor can Lunsford's high negatives be attributed to an anti-incumbent sentiment, because Lunsford, despite myriad efforts, has yet to win an election.

No wonder the guy is forced to pump his own millions into his own campaign; to know him is to dislike him.

Altogether, Lunsford has spent roughly $17 million to get himself elected to something, anything. He's not particular; he'll serve as governor or senator. Anything to plaster his mug all over our TVs. That's one pricey singles' ad.