SUSA Poll: Great News for Todd Lally

The Survey USA poll conducted by WHAS 11 and the Courier-Journal shows that the race for the 3rd Congressional District is a statistical dead heat.

John Yarmuth leads Todd Lally 50-46. But the margin of error is + or - 4/1 percent. (Ed Martin and Michael Hansen each have one percent.)

Interestingly, the undecideds only constitute one percent, which is much lower than the national average.

Lally leads by six among voters who describe themselves as "very likely" to vote in a midterm election.

That means Yarmuth will be looking to his labor friends -- including SEIU, which gave $2500 last quarter -- to bus in the union voters.

Kentucky conservatives can score a two-fer by working to get out the vote for Todd Lally and Hal Heiner. (Rand Paul won his race when Jack Conway aired his infamous Aqua Buddha ad.)

It is time to walk the precincts and work the phone banks. Time to show the NRCC that conservatives in KY-3 are hoping for change. We're not waiting around for the pros from D.C. to rescue us from John Yarmuth.

New Poll Results For Lally, Yarmuth

The Lally campaign has released new poll results for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District.

• Todd Lally: 37 percent
• John Yarmuth: 41
• undecided: 22
• margin of error: + or - 4.5

The poll was conducted by Rivercity using automated phone calls. The Lally campaign maintains that this poll is particularly accurate because it uses the RNC's voter vault methodology. However, I question whether 22 percent of KY-3 voters are undecided; that number seems way off.

Two other points to note: First, the poll shows that Lally has cut Yarmuth's lead in half . Second, Yarmuth is "upside-down." meaning he is below 50 percent. That is bad news for an incumbent, especially this close to the election.

Recall how late in the campaign Scott Brown surged. This is not over. Conservatives in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District need to make a donation, work a phone bank and walk a precinct.

Rasmusson: Rand Paul Still Leads

The latest Rasumusson poll shows Rand Paul still leading over Jack Conway, 49- 38. Rasmusson, which tends to lean right, therefore places Kentucky in the "solid Republican" column. Rasmusson does show that the race has tightened from three weeks ago (54-39).

I tend to think the race is somewhere in between the latest SUSA poll -- showing a dead heat -- and Rasmusson's 11 point lead for Paul. I know of no Republicans or independents who have switched from Paul to Conway, just plenty who are wishing they could have a do-over for the primary.

H/t: Daily Caller

Lally and Yarmuth Respond to Poll

Joe Arnold has the unedited tape of his interviews with Todd Lally and Rep. John Yarmuth regarding the SUSA poll that shows the candidates are in a statistical dead heat for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional district.

These interviews are worth watching in their entirety -- particularly for those of us who have not had much opportunity to listen to Todd Lally. I was impressed with Lally. He's very collected, serious and forthright. And there is no doubt that he is a real conservative. The Republican primary voters have chosen wisely.

Yarmuth, in contrast, does not come across nearly as well. That surprised me, because no matter how much I disagree with the man's ideology, in the past he has always seemed like a truly decent guy. In this interview -- like a wounded animal -- he seems mean and nervous. And he sweats profusely.

Check out Yarmuth's campaign strategy: he calls Todd Lally "extreme" and lumps him with Rand Paul.

This is the same bone-headed strategy that Jack Conway is attempting to employ -- the same strategy that Trey Grayson used. Did none of these Democrats notice the Republican primary for U.S. Senate? Grayson was skewered. His campaign was a giant focus group for the Democrats to study. So instead of learning from what did not work for Grayson, the Democrats are replicating his failed strategy.

Republicans need to watch Yarmuth's interview until the end, when Joe Arnold asks him about campaign finances. Yarmuth makes clear that he will have the funds he needs; Yarmuth actually sneers at this point of the interview.

So any conservatives who are still employed and solvent after Obama's "recovery summer" should go to Todd Lally's website and donate now.

New Poll on Senate Race

Joe Arnold is reporting that a new Public Policy Poll shows that Rand Paul and Jack Conway are tied in the U.S. Senate race, at 43 percent each.

It was inevitable that the onslaught of national media scrutiny would bring Paul's numbers back down from the stratosphere. This was Paul's own fault. Now he is demonstrating McConnell-like discipline in staying on message and avoiding left-wing shows that seek to sandbag him.

The poll notes that Paul's biggest asset is President Obama's miserable approval rating in Kentucky. That's not going to change, and certainly not before November.

Meanwhile, other than fundraising, Conway has done nothing but write mash notes to Dan Mongiardo. We won't even get to hear Conway cuss like a sailor due to the new speech rules at Fancy Farm. That's alright; we know he's Jack Tough.

About Those Poll Numbers

The Rand Paul campaign boasts that it leads by 20 points, but its most recent TV spot calls that into question. No candidate who is truly up by that wide a margin would run an ad this negative -- particularly when Trey Grayson is running such a positive ad.

But the ads are not just different in tone. Grayson's ad features Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who won an overwhelming electoral victory just last year and remains very popular among Kentucky Republicans. McConnell, after all, did more than anyone else to transform Kentucky into a Red State.

KY Senate Seat Leans to GOP

RealClearPolitics has linked a new Rasmusson poll that shows that it is increasingly likely that Sen. Jim Bunning's U.S. Senate seat will remain in Republican hands -- regardless of the nominee.

The most movement appears to have occurred in the Trey Grayson - Dan Mongiardo match-up. Grayson wins 53-33. That's a seven point improvement for Grayson over the March 2 poll. Rand Paul would likewise beat Mongiardo but by a slimmer margin (52-37). Paul improved his position one point since last month.

In the event that Jack Conway is the Democrats' nominee, Grayson wins 52-32 (up three from last month). Paul would beat Conway, but again, the margin is narrower: 50-36. And again, Paul only moved up one point.

The irony is that though Grayson has not sewn up his own primary, he is unquestionably the stronger candidate. He beats either Democratic nominee by twenty (20!) points.

Rand Paul has peaked. Notwithstanding the massive amount of advertising and earned media, he only increased his margin of victory by one point, compared to Grayson, who increased seven points against Mongiardo and three against Conway.

Public Opposition Remains

The Obama administration has failed to change the public perception of their historic takeover of one-sixth of the nation's economy.

A CNN poll taken this weekend found the public opposes the Democrats' health care plan 59-39. As for the deficit, 70 percent believe that the bill will make the deficits increase; only 12 percent believe the administration's claim that it will lower the deficit. On the issue of cost, 62 percent expect their personal health care costs to increase. More than half the respondents (56) percent believe that the bill allows too much government involvement in the health care system.

Democrats knew all this going into the vote. But elitists by nature, they thought they knew better.

Rep. John Boehner said it best on the floor of the House right before the vote: "Shame on each and every one of you who substitutes your will and your desires above those of your fellow countrymen."

Obama Upside Down

Barely a year into his presidency, Barack Obama's unfavorables now exceed his favorables, 47-46, according to Gallup. No wonder: Obama thinks that he is so much smarter than the little people who oppose his health care takeover that he insists on trying to cram it down our throats. His upside down job approval rating is the gag reflux of the American people.

New Poll: KY Senate Seat Stays Republican

Regardless of whether the Republican nominee is Trey Grayson or Rand Paul, a new Rasmusson poll shows that Kentucky's U.S. Senate seat will remain Republican. That is true whether the Democratic nominee is Dan Mongiardo or Jack Conway.

The closest match up is Trey Grayson vs. Jack Conway; Grayson wins, 44-40, whereas Rand Paul would defeat Conway 47-39.

Rasmusson polled "likely voters" earlier this week.

Rand Calls Out New York Times

Dr. Rand Paul notes that a piece in Sunday's New York Times is flat-out wrong on the facts.

The Times wrote that "if Mr. Paul wins -- and early polling suggests that could happen -- a Democrat would be favored to win."

As Paul points out on his website, two polls have shown that he would beat either Democrat Dan Mongiardo or Jack Conway. Of course, the polls also show that Trey Grayson would also beat the Democrats. The Democratic primary has become irrelevant.

The Score Is Now Tied

A new Rasmussen poll shows that when asked in the context of a generic congressional ballot which party they support, Americans stating a preference are now equally divided between Republicans and Democrats -- 38% to 38%. So much for the left wing media's obituary for the Republican party after last November's election.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

McConnell Up By Eight Points

WHAS is reporting results of a new SUSA poll that show Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell beating Bruce Lunsford by eight points (53-45). Only three percent of voters (and that's rounded up) remain undecided.

Let's convince those last few undecideds and put this race away with a big margin so that we don't have to endure the spectacle of "perennial candidate" Bruce Lunsford running for Sen. Jim Bunning's seat.

McCain's Incredible Growing Lead (Part 1): A Miracle In The Making

For many days we have chronicled Barack Obama's incredible shrinking lead. Today, we are happy to report that McCain's tortoise-like progress in the polls has allowed him to catch up with and now finally surpass the sputtering hare. The pollster Zogby has this to say about the latest numbers from the Zogby poll:

"Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all.

"Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

(emphasis added)

For those not enamored by the tortoise vs. hare analogy, how about this one: The McCain-Palin team is like the American men's relay team at the Beijing Olympics who did not catch up with the French team until the very end of the final lap to out touch them at the finish and bring home the gold for Michael Phelps and the other Americans.

This election promises to be a very special and historic one for the Republican presidential ticket.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Obama's Incredible Shrinking Lead (Part XI)

Like the tortoise, McCain is catching up inch by inch on the hare. From today's Zogby's poll:

The race now stands at 49.9% to 45.1% in favor of Obama. Obama now leads McCain by 4.8 points, compared to 5.3 points in yesterday's report.

With McCain's numbers progressing at the current rate, the candidates will essentially be tied in the Zogby poll on the day of the election.

Obama's Incredible Shrinking Lead (Part X)

Here is the Zogby poll, and here is what Zogby had to say about it:

There is no question that this race continues to tighten and that McCain is finding his message again,” said Pollster John Zogby. “It is after all about the economy and that is how McCain tightened it up the last time. I have said over and over again, when he focuses on extraneous issues, he screws up. In today's single day of polling, it was 49% to 46% in favor of Obama. McCain has moved his own numbers each of the three days and Obama has gone down from 54% to 50% to 49%. I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go.”
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Obama's Incredible Shrinking Lead (Part IX)

From Drudge: "ZOGBY SUNDAY: Single day of polling, 49% to 46% in favor of Obama... Developing..."
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Obama's Incredible Shrinking Lead (Part VIII)

Investor's Business Daily reports the following regarding the new IBD/TIPP poll:

McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Obama's Incredible Shrinking Lead (Part VII)

The just-released Associated Press-GfK poll has Obama and McCain "essentially running even among likely voters" -- with "Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent." Meanwhile, "[c]ontrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0," according to Investor's Business Daily.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.

Obama's Incredible Shrinking Lead (Part V)

From today's Drudge Report:

GALLUP POLL LIKELY VOTERS STAY 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN FOR SECOND DAY...

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.