Tuesday, April 6, 2010

KY Senate Seat Leans to GOP

RealClearPolitics has linked a new Rasmusson poll that shows that it is increasingly likely that Sen. Jim Bunning's U.S. Senate seat will remain in Republican hands -- regardless of the nominee.

The most movement appears to have occurred in the Trey Grayson - Dan Mongiardo match-up. Grayson wins 53-33. That's a seven point improvement for Grayson over the March 2 poll. Rand Paul would likewise beat Mongiardo but by a slimmer margin (52-37). Paul improved his position one point since last month.

In the event that Jack Conway is the Democrats' nominee, Grayson wins 52-32 (up three from last month). Paul would beat Conway, but again, the margin is narrower: 50-36. And again, Paul only moved up one point.

The irony is that though Grayson has not sewn up his own primary, he is unquestionably the stronger candidate. He beats either Democratic nominee by twenty (20!) points.

Rand Paul has peaked. Notwithstanding the massive amount of advertising and earned media, he only increased his margin of victory by one point, compared to Grayson, who increased seven points against Mongiardo and three against Conway.

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