We haven't heard much from the Demo-blogs about the approval ratings for Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell since Survey USA/WHAS 11 released their latest poll numbers on December 22. And no wonder.
This survey "shows a huge turnaround" in McConnell's popularity, according to WHAS 11's Mark Hebert. He reports that 51% of Kentucky voters in the survey voiced approval of the job McConnell is doing.
Survey USA's number is likely a significant underestimate of McConnell's support, given that this polling group historically registers higher numbers for Democrats in Kentucky than that found in other polls. For example, Survey USA reported much lower approval ratings for McConnell in its November poll -- the source of Hebert's "huge turnaround" characterization of McConnell's latest showing.
Moreover, the latest Survey USA poll had Senator Hillary Clinton defeating every major Republican candidate in a head-to-head match-up. If McConnell is ahead in a voting sample that favors Hillary for President, then McConnell must really be popular.
These results cannot be good news for the announced Democratic Senatorial candidates, who already had their hands full trying to dissuade Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer from joining the race. According to the Demo-blogs, Lunsford's and Fischer's unpardonable sins are that they are businessmen who have donated to Republicans -- including, in Lunsford's case, to Senator McConnell himself. The horror!
The Survey USA poll also shows that the economy and health care are the top two issues for Kentucky voters. In this regard, the lawyer-physician Dr. Michael Cassaro, Esq., may have a leg up on Lt. Col. Andrew Horne, who will need a crash course to learn what to say other than "'Iraq Iraq Katrina Bush Iraq Bush war war war.'”
Showing posts with label '08 predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label '08 predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Dark Horse Takes The Lead
Rasmussen now has Mike Huckabee in the lead for the Republican presidential nomination. According to a new nationwide poll, Huckabee is at 20%, and for the first time, Rudy Giuliani is in second with 17%. Mitt Romney and John McCain tied for third, each with 13%, while Fred Thompson has fallen from second to fifth place, with 10%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton polled 34%, compared with Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards at 16%.
And here's the latest word from the people who know both Huck and Hillary the best: in Arkansas, Huckabee beats Clinton 48% to 42%.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton polled 34%, compared with Barack Obama at 24% and John Edwards at 16%.
And here's the latest word from the people who know both Huck and Hillary the best: in Arkansas, Huckabee beats Clinton 48% to 42%.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Rasmussen Poll Shows Race for White House Tightening
Today Rasmussen released a new national poll supporting the notion that the primary in Kentucky -- and every other State, for that matter -- could play a decisive factor as to who wins the Republican presidential nomination.
Rudy Giuliani's support among Republicans nationwide has fallen to 18% -- the same number garnered by Mike Huckabee, who "is enjoying an amazing surge and now shares the top spot with Giuliani," according to Rasmussen. "Close behind are John McCain at 14%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Mitt Romney at 12%," while "Ron Paul attracts 7%." These results clearly point toward a brokered convention, where every delegate's vote will matter.
On the Democratic side, the same scenario could occur, though this is less likely given that (a) the Democrats have fewer viable candidates than do the Republicans, and (b) Hillary Clinton still has a double-digit lead over her nearest challenger. According to Rasmussen, Clinton "now attracts 35% of the vote, down from 41% a week ago and 43% two weeks ago," while "Barack Obama’s support remains steady at 23%." As for the other Democrats, "John Edwards gained two points on Tuesday to 17% while Bill Richardson is the top choice for 7% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide."
Rasmussen also reports that "Rudy Giuliani is still seen as the most electable Republican. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are essentially tied for second in this category."
Rudy Giuliani's support among Republicans nationwide has fallen to 18% -- the same number garnered by Mike Huckabee, who "is enjoying an amazing surge and now shares the top spot with Giuliani," according to Rasmussen. "Close behind are John McCain at 14%, Fred Thompson at 13%, and Mitt Romney at 12%," while "Ron Paul attracts 7%." These results clearly point toward a brokered convention, where every delegate's vote will matter.
On the Democratic side, the same scenario could occur, though this is less likely given that (a) the Democrats have fewer viable candidates than do the Republicans, and (b) Hillary Clinton still has a double-digit lead over her nearest challenger. According to Rasmussen, Clinton "now attracts 35% of the vote, down from 41% a week ago and 43% two weeks ago," while "Barack Obama’s support remains steady at 23%." As for the other Democrats, "John Edwards gained two points on Tuesday to 17% while Bill Richardson is the top choice for 7% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters nationwide."
Rasmussen also reports that "Rudy Giuliani is still seen as the most electable Republican. McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are essentially tied for second in this category."
Monday, November 26, 2007
Zogby Interactive's Latest National Poll
The numbers look good these days for any of the major Republican presidential candidates against the likely Democratic nominee. Zogby Interactive's latest nationwide poll found that Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, John McCain and Mike Huckabee each lead Hillary Clinton "by three to five percentage points in the direct matches," according to Reuters.
Zogby's findings undercut the latest Kentucky poll conducted by Survey USA, which found Hillary to be ahead of every Republican candidate in Presidential head-to-head contests. If Zogby is correct that Hillary is behind in the national polling, then it is hard to fathom that a poll showing her leading in Kentucky would be very accurate.
Survey USA also found that Barack Obama trailed Giuliani by 14, McCain by 22 and Romney by 1 in the Bluegrass. Zogby, in contrast, polled Obama and John Edwards both with "narrow leads" nationwide over the Republicans, according to Reuters.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.
Zogby's findings undercut the latest Kentucky poll conducted by Survey USA, which found Hillary to be ahead of every Republican candidate in Presidential head-to-head contests. If Zogby is correct that Hillary is behind in the national polling, then it is hard to fathom that a poll showing her leading in Kentucky would be very accurate.
Survey USA also found that Barack Obama trailed Giuliani by 14, McCain by 22 and Romney by 1 in the Bluegrass. Zogby, in contrast, polled Obama and John Edwards both with "narrow leads" nationwide over the Republicans, according to Reuters.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Giuliani Leads Clinton In The Bluegrass
Lost in the Democrats' ballyhoos of last week's election were some poll numbers that show Kentucky is likely to remain Republican in the '08 presidential election, at least if Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton are the nominees. The latest Rasmussen poll in the Bluegrass, conducted November 1, shows Giuliani defeating Clinton 47% to 41%. His lead was outside the margin of error (+/- 4.5 %).
The percentage of surveyed voters who viewed Hillary unfavorably was an even worse number for her -- 47%, compared to Rudy's 38%. His favorable rating was 54%; hers, 48%.
The same survey found Fred Thompson in a statistical dead heat with Clinton, 44% versus 43%. The poll apparently did not study the match-up between Mitt Romney and Clinton or between a Republican and any of the other Democratic contenders.
Hillary Clinton's latest poll numbers in Kentucky are less than the highest percentage that Bill Clinton achieved in the Commonwealth -- 45.84%, in the 1996 election. (In 1992, Clinton received 44.55%.) For Democrats who are still spinning Steve Beshear's victory last week, the sober fact remains that not a single Democratic presidential nominee has garnered more than 50% of Kentucky voters in a general election since the days of Jimmy Carter.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.
The percentage of surveyed voters who viewed Hillary unfavorably was an even worse number for her -- 47%, compared to Rudy's 38%. His favorable rating was 54%; hers, 48%.
The same survey found Fred Thompson in a statistical dead heat with Clinton, 44% versus 43%. The poll apparently did not study the match-up between Mitt Romney and Clinton or between a Republican and any of the other Democratic contenders.
Hillary Clinton's latest poll numbers in Kentucky are less than the highest percentage that Bill Clinton achieved in the Commonwealth -- 45.84%, in the 1996 election. (In 1992, Clinton received 44.55%.) For Democrats who are still spinning Steve Beshear's victory last week, the sober fact remains that not a single Democratic presidential nominee has garnered more than 50% of Kentucky voters in a general election since the days of Jimmy Carter.
Please note: The postings of "G. Morris", written by John K. Bush and which end in 2016, stated his views as of the dates of posting and should not be understood as current assertions of his views. The postings, which have not been altered since they came to an end, remain on this blog to preserve the historical record. In 2017, Mr. Bush took a position that precludes further public political comments or endorsements. He will no longer be contributing to this blog.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Richie Farmer, Library Tax Foes Outpoll Beshear
Newsweek's Howard Fineman (formerly of the Courier-Journal) begins his analysis of yesterday's election with the question, "Is the Bluegrass State turning Blue?" He suggests that Steve Beshear's victory over Governor Ernie Fletcher may be a harbinger of success for the Democratic nominee in next year's presidential election.
In support of his thesis, Fineman cites this example: "A generation ago, in 1967, a lawyer from southern Kentucky named Louie B. Nunn became the first Republican since World War II to be elected governor of the state. A year later Richard Nixon won the White House. " Fineman asks whether history may be about to repeat itself with party roles reversed.
Not likely. For one thing, although Beshear's margin of victory was impressive, the candidate who garnered the most votes in a statewide contest yesterday was not Beshear or any other Democrat. It was a Republican: Richie Farmer, for Agriculture Commissioner.
Farmer received 644,789 votes compared to Beshear's 619,557 votes. That hardly suggests that Kentucky will turn blue in next year's election. The Republicans' advantage is potentially even greater than this comparision suggests, given that Beshear benefited from a divided Republican party primary in the governor's race.
Fineman also points to Republican Anne Northup's loss of her congressional seat to John Yarmuth last year as evidence of the Commonwealth's move to the left. What he fails to consider, however, is that this Congressional district encompasses Jefferson County -- historically one of the most liberal counties in Kentucky. Yet even in that Democratic hot-bed, more voters cast their ballots in favor of the conservative opposition to the library tax (143,350 votes) than voted for Beshear (141,462 votes).
In fact, only one third of Jefferson County voters supported the Democratic position on the library tax. In the words of Democratic Louisville Metro Mayor Jerry Abramson, he and others who campaigned for the tax got "a thumping."
To the extent that yesterday's results can be extrapolated for '08, Fineman has misread the tobacco leaves.
In support of his thesis, Fineman cites this example: "A generation ago, in 1967, a lawyer from southern Kentucky named Louie B. Nunn became the first Republican since World War II to be elected governor of the state. A year later Richard Nixon won the White House. " Fineman asks whether history may be about to repeat itself with party roles reversed.
Not likely. For one thing, although Beshear's margin of victory was impressive, the candidate who garnered the most votes in a statewide contest yesterday was not Beshear or any other Democrat. It was a Republican: Richie Farmer, for Agriculture Commissioner.
Farmer received 644,789 votes compared to Beshear's 619,557 votes. That hardly suggests that Kentucky will turn blue in next year's election. The Republicans' advantage is potentially even greater than this comparision suggests, given that Beshear benefited from a divided Republican party primary in the governor's race.
Fineman also points to Republican Anne Northup's loss of her congressional seat to John Yarmuth last year as evidence of the Commonwealth's move to the left. What he fails to consider, however, is that this Congressional district encompasses Jefferson County -- historically one of the most liberal counties in Kentucky. Yet even in that Democratic hot-bed, more voters cast their ballots in favor of the conservative opposition to the library tax (143,350 votes) than voted for Beshear (141,462 votes).
In fact, only one third of Jefferson County voters supported the Democratic position on the library tax. In the words of Democratic Louisville Metro Mayor Jerry Abramson, he and others who campaigned for the tax got "a thumping."
To the extent that yesterday's results can be extrapolated for '08, Fineman has misread the tobacco leaves.
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