Monday, February 1, 2016
So Who Will Win Iowa?
I expect Donald Trump to win followed by Marco Rubio. This may just be my hope - that Rubio edges out Ted Cruz, whom I detest.
I think there is a real possibility that Rand Paul will finish fourth, as a result of his father's organization and a very good debate performance last week.
Iowa is a lousy predictor of who will ultimately win the nomination; it is by no means representative of the rest of the country. The RNC should rework the primary system to displace Iowa as first in the nation. All this money gets wasted there for at the end of the day very few electoral votes.
The real question I have about tonight's results is this: how accurate will the polling appear compared to actual votes?
Kentuckians have witnessed some wildly inaccurate polls in recent election cycles, done by formerly reputable pollsters. My sense is that pollsters have not adapted to the demise of the land line.
On the Democrat side, it would be fun to see Hillary get Berned. A decent nominee should be able to beat either one, so it probably makes little difference as to Republican chances in November.
Trump is scheduled to go to Little Rock following the Iowa caucuses. Presumably Mike Huckabee will announce he is bowing out and endorse Trump. This will be a great opportunity for Trump to remind voters of Bill Clinton as sexual predator and the general smarminess of the Clintons.