Sabato On Kentucky Senate Race

Official tea leaf reader Prof. Larry Sabato extrapolates Scott Brown's win for the U.S. Senate races.

For Kentucky, he decrees the race is still a toss-up. If the election were held today, however, Sabato says that Republicans would hold on to Jim Bunning's seat.

He predicts that Dan Mongiardo will be the Democratic nominee and Trey Grayson the Republican.

Sabato also shows Sen. Democratic Leader Harry Reid going down. So that's why President Barack Obama is going to Nevada to campaign for Reid: he's trying to push him over the abyss, just like he did Martha Coakley (and before her, Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey and Creigh Deeds, Democratic candidate for Governor of Virginia).

Larry Sabato Predicts McConnell Win

The Courier-Journal reports that Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia believes Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell will defeat Bruce Lunsford. Sabato, who was in Louisville yesterday, "just might be the most heavily quoted political scientist on the planet," according to the C-J. He accurately "predicted how every state would vote in the [2004] presidential election and called every House seat and Senate races."

So what are the reasons he gives for an anticipated McConnell victory? Sabato offers principally two. First, McConnell -- like any champion -- knows how to win the close contests:

McConnell understands the dynamics of a difficult race. He had a difficult one in 1984 and a difficult one in 1990. He hasn't had one since then, but as minority leader he's lived through quite a number of the close campaigns of his colleagues.

Second, Bruce Lunsford is, as Sabato observes with studied understatement, "well-funded, but not necessarily universally loved."
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