Monday, October 27, 2008

Larry Sabato Predicts McConnell Win

The Courier-Journal reports that Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia believes Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell will defeat Bruce Lunsford. Sabato, who was in Louisville yesterday, "just might be the most heavily quoted political scientist on the planet," according to the C-J. He accurately "predicted how every state would vote in the [2004] presidential election and called every House seat and Senate races."

So what are the reasons he gives for an anticipated McConnell victory? Sabato offers principally two. First, McConnell -- like any champion -- knows how to win the close contests:

McConnell understands the dynamics of a difficult race. He had a difficult one in 1984 and a difficult one in 1990. He hasn't had one since then, but as minority leader he's lived through quite a number of the close campaigns of his colleagues.

Second, Bruce Lunsford is, as Sabato observes with studied understatement, "well-funded, but not necessarily universally loved."

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