Tucker Carlson & Donna Brazile Do Louisville

MSNBC anchor Tucker Carlson sparred with CNN's Donna Brazile over presidential politics last night in Louisville at the Chamber of Commerce's annual meeting.

When I asked Carlson afterwords for his thoughts on Mitch McConnell and Kentucky's U.S. Senate race, he responded, "I'm blinded by love." Noting that McConnell evokes strong reactions, both positive and negative, he observed that McConnell is "one of the smartest people ever to serve" in the U.S. Senate.

Carlson and Brazile each spoke for ten minutes --essentially stump speeches for John McCain and Barack Obama, respectively. Then Greenebaum, Doll & McDonald presiding partner Jeff McKenzie posed questions for the two and moderated their exchange. Although both Carlson and Brazile were smart, funny and engaging, Brazile, like Barack Obama, was thin on substance, and appeared to stall; she ran down the clock with myriad jokes about bourbon before addressing the subject of the election.

Carlson described the political climate "with great sadness" as subjecting Republicans to a "massive tail wind," reflected in fundraising results. He noted that Obama "is not just a candidate -- he's his own party," because Obama's campaign has raised more money than the Republican and Democratic parties combined. The media's coverage of Obama, moreover, is "a love that only 14 year old boys can understand."

The good news for Republicans, according to Carlson, is that Democrats "can still screw it up," which would cause a McCain victory "by default." He noted that Hillary Clinton would have been a stronger -- unbeatable -- candidate than Obama, because "she wins conservative Democrats. The rest follow."

Carlson praised Obama's political skills but suggested that his message of change is problematic. "Americans hate change. They flee from it." "We are a nation of merchants," Carlson said, and consequently recognize that most change -- unless it is incremental -- is destructive. Obama understands this and therefore has proposed policies that would make incremental improvements.

Obama's followers, however, do not want incremental change, according to Carlson. "They want French Revolution-style change." Obama's true believers (whom Carlson described as 20-something Starbuck's workers with backpacks covered with stickers) will scare the Clinton Democrats and independents. That is, the problem with the Obama campaign is not Obama; it's his movement. Carlson characterized Obama's challenge as more cultural than racial.

Brazile, in contrast to the nutroots, asserted that "there's nothing wrong with being a liberal." She never used the new nomenclature, "progressive." Brazile appeared to contradict herself by describing this as a"game changing election" that is not just about change but about "tackling old problems and rebuilding old alliances."

Her advice for the Obama campaign: return to the small gatherings he used in Iowa; listen more. She acknowledged that Obama's biggest weakness is what she described as a "stature gap" on national security. Carlson responded that Obama's biggest weakness is that "he has never done anything."

Carlson advised McCain to "remain a credible and responsible alternative" to Obama and hope that America wakes up in time. He joked that McCain's slogan should be "It could be worse." That's the difference between adults and children, and the heart of conservatism, according to Carlson. Grown-ups understand that it takes longer to build something than to tear it down.

SUSA Poll Shows Kentucky Still Red

A new SurveyUSA poll shows that regardless of which Democrat gets the presidential nomination, Kentucky prefers McCain.

The poll, linked by RedState, finds that at this point, Barack Obama would beat John McCain, by 280 to 258 electoral votes. If Hillary Clinton wins the nomination, she would beat McCain by 276 to 262 electoral votes.

Kentucky, however, falls in McCain's column. In a match-up against Obama, McCain would win 54 to 33 percent of the vote. McCain likewise would beat Clinton by 50 to 41 percent of the Kentucky vote.

With months to go, those numbers undoubtedly will change. But for now, the presidential race -- against either Obama or Clinton --looks close in the electoral college. It is far from over for McCain.

In Kentucky, it's not so close; McCain enjoys a comfortable lead against both Obama and Clinton. That's significant not so much for Kentucky's eight electoral votes but rather for what McCain's coat tails can do to help GOP congressional candidates like Anne Northup.

Those Kentucky Super-delegates confront a dilemma. Obama is the weaker Democratic candidate in this commonwealth although the stronger candidate nationally. A Super-delegate like John Yarmuth -- who faces his own close election -- really has a conflict of interest on whom to support. If he wants to keep his job, Clinton is more likely to give him a coat-tail assist. Obama, on the other hand, has a better chance of winning the White House. Yarmuth already has endorsed Obama, but those Super-delegates have been known to switch donkeys.

Iowa Wrap-up

Peggy Noonan has the best analysis of the Iowa caucuses.

I was disappointed, frankly. Huckabee only brings one leg of the Reagan coalition's three-legged stool. He is not a fiscal conservative. His ignorance of foreign policy would threaten our national security. Yes, evangelicals like this Baptist preacher, but even that puzzles me: he displays a recurring viciousness that undermines his witness, to say the least.

On the Democratic side, it was fun to watch Hillary get schooled. I just wish it had been in the general election.