Friday, March 5, 2010

New Rasmusson Poll (U.S. Senate)

A new Rasmusson poll (via Joe Arnold) shows that Republicans continue to solidify their hold on the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated (not a day too soon) by Sen. Jim Bunning.

This poll confirms what the SUSA poll previously found: either Trey Grayson or Rand Paul would beat the Democratic nominee, whether it is Jack Conway or Dan Mongiardo.

If the Democrats nominate Mongiardo, at this point Grayson wins 46-33 (last month Grayson led 49-35), whereas Paul would win 51-34 (last month, Paul led 48-37).

If, or I should say, when Conway wins the Democratic nomination, both Paul and Grayson beat Conway with 49 percent. If Paul is the nominee, the GOP holds the seat 49-34. If Grayson is the seat, he wins 49-34. Last month, Grayson led Conway by a narrower margin (44-40). Paul led Conway last month 47-39.

Note that both Democratic candidates are "upside-down" in that their unfavorable ratings exceed their favorables. Mongiardo's very favorables to very unfavorable is 17-20. For Conway, the numbers are a little better: 12-13.

For Republicans, Paul is viewed very favorable to very unfavorably 18-9. Grayson is viewed very favorably to unfavorably 11-5.

The poll was conducted among 500 likely voters on March 3, 2010. As Joe Arnold notes, that was at the height of Jim Bunning's grand stand and therefore the best opportunity for Democrats to score. Not even Bunning could help Conway or Mongiardo.

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