Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Bet On Mike Huckabee To Place

With the Iowa Republican presidential caucus a little over a month away (January 3, 2008), the remaining campaign period resembles Derby week: a crowded field of entries; jockeying for the best post position; and fear and loathing of the favorite.

Here's a betting tip, based on the latest Iowa poll numbers: Mike Huckabee to place, and not just in Iowa. Look for Huckabee to be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

In the ABC/Washington Post poll of the Iowa Republican caucus, conducted November 14-18, Mitt Romney held onto first place with 28% -- virtually unchanged from the last poll. But the real news is that Huckabee has surged into second place, with an astounding 24%. Next was Fred Thompson, with 15%, followed by Rudy Giuliani, who remains in fourth with 13%.

These numbers suggest Huckabee's dark horse candidacy remains viable, but a more likely outcome would be for him to be picked as second on the Republican ticket.

Despite their recent campaign attacks, Romney and Huckabee remain on good terms. Though they may seem an unlikely exacta, these candidates became friends while Governors of Massachusetts and Arkansas, respectively, and worked together closely as members of the Republican Governors Association. They have more in common than their respective campaigns may let on, and at the end of the day, a Baptist Southerner would bring nice balance to a ticket headed by a Mormon Northeasterner.

A similar argument could be made for the pairing of Huckabee with Giuliani, a Roman Catholic New Yorker.

And what if Thompson, the Tennessee Presbyterian, were to win the Republican nomination? Though having a Protestant Arkansan and Tennessean on the same presidential ticket may seem redundant, recall that this combination worked well for the Democrats in 1992 and 1996.

But don't count on that scenario happening because Thompson, with sinking poll numbers, has faded even before the stretch. The same can be said for John McCain, who polled only 6% in the latest Iowa count.

The only Republican presidential candidate making a move is Huckabee, and though he remains a long shot for the presidential nomination, Huckabee may be best horse to ride if one wants to support a Republican presidential candidate with the best chance of being somewhere on the ballot in November 2008.

1 comment:

KF said...

Huckabee Supporters may not want to count their eggs before they hatch. Fred Thompson has been the most consistent Republican candidate. He is stronger on immigration than Huckabee. He has excellent ideas for Social Security reform. His support is building as people learn more about him. He has the growing support among veterans. He is the only candidate that will bring Unity to our government.