In the Democratic primary, Dan Mongiardo beats Jack Conway 37 -30; "other" polls 15. For the life of me, I do not understand why Democrats prefer Mongiardo; I can only attribute this to hostility to Conway's hometown, Louisville.
For Republicans, Grayson beats Dr. Rand Paul 40 -25; "other" polls 18. This is a weaker showing for Paul than the last SUSA poll. This race may well tighten when Paul starts to spend some of the proceeds from his "money bomb."
In a general election race between Mongiardo and Grayson, Grayson wins 45 - 41. If Grayson opposes Conway, Grayson's lead improves to 46-40.
If Rand Paul wins the Republican nomination, Mongiardo wins 42 - 37 and Conway wins 41 - 37.
Therefore, at this point, Grayson looks like the GOP's best candidate for keeping this seat.
The poll has a four percent margin of error and was taken August 31-September 2.
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