Sunday, September 5, 2010

SUSA Poll Shows Paul Up by 15

The latest WHAS11/ Courier-Journal poll by Survey USA shows Rand Paul has widened his lead over Jack Conway to 15 points. SUSA has the best track record for accuracy in polling Kentucky races.

Paul leads 55 to 40. That's a four point gain over last month, and a three point drop for Conway.

The poll shows an extraordinarily large gender gap; men are fleeing from Conway like he has bedbugs or something. Men favor Paul by 34 points. Among women, the gender gap is less pronounced: Conway leads by three.

Democrats are attempting to spin the poll as inaccurate by arguing that it over-samples Republicans. John Yarmuth said much the same thing in his interview with Joe Arnold about the 3rd Congressional district poll. What Democrats can't seem to grasp is that more voters are identifying themselves as Republican. That's not a problem of oversampling, but it is a problem for the Democrats.


John Carey said...

Do believe the poll is accurate?

Bridget M. Bush said...

Yes, based on SUSA's track record. Their polls have more closely predicted actual election results in Kentucky than anyone else. They're commissioned by mainstream media outlets, so I don't see any bias in favor of Republicans (one would expect the opposite). I think if they have adjusted their sampling methodology, it was to ensure and improve accuracy, not tilt the poll.