Thursday, September 2, 2010

Heiner and Fischer Tied

The WHAS 11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll conducted by SurveyUSA -- which I am not, repeat not calling the "SUSA" poll -- shows that the Louisville mayoral race is tied at a statistical dead heat: Greg Fischer 47, Hal Heiner 45. Only five percent remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus four percent.

Fischer has moved up two points since the last poll. But given the Democrats' registration advantage, this poll is still very good for Heiner.

Most of the movement from the previous poll was offset by movement for the other candidate; that is, most of the change is a wash.

A few notes from the cross-tabs. First, Heiner improved with younger voters. To be sure, Fischer cancelled that gain out by making gains with older voters. It is extremely good news for Heiner, as the Republican, to appeal to the younger voters, particularly given how Barack Obama appeared to own the youth vote just two years ago. Wonder whether Heiner is the draw to this demographic, or his conservative message?

Second, both candidates have a gender gap. Fischer appeals to ladies, and Heiner to men. This reflects longstanding trends at the national party level. Taken together, the gender gap is 28 percent.

The one movement that is not offset by the other campaign is that Heiner has lost some support among Republicans, and Fischer has picked up that support without losing any points among Democrats. (Indeed, Fischer actually increased slightly.) This hearkens back to the early days of the campaign, when Fischer held a number of fundraisers that featured Republicans as hosts -- not big-time prominent Republicans, just people who are well-known and liked within their neighborhoods.

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