Wednesday, February 13, 2008

McCain Double Checks Huckabee's Fuzzy Math

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's strategy to deny Sen. John McCain a first-round nomination at the Republican convention hit a snag yesterday. In an email distributed to the media, McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis does the math after McCain's victories yesterday in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia:

The results from tonight's primary elections in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC, make it mathematically impossible for Governor Huckabee to secure the Republican nomination for president. He now needs 950 delegates to secure the required 1,191. But in the remaining contests there are only 774 delegates available. He would need to win 123% of remaining delegates.

. . . .

In the contests that remain, only 774 delegates remain to be allocated.

After tonight's contests, Governor Huckabee has 241 delegates and John McCain has 839 (739 before the results in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, DC -- based on AP reporting).

For John McCain to reach the threshold of 1,191 delegates needed to secure the nomination, he needs to win roughly 35% of the 774 remaining delegates. For Governor Huckabee to reach the 1,191 delegate threshold, he needs an additional 950 delegates -- more than remain available in future contests.

Thirty-five percent (35%) is a rather low threshold for McCain to achieve in the remaining primaries. It looks more and more like Huckabee will require a miracle to get his brokered convention.

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